Press Points |
Executive Summary |
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1. |
Outlook:
Galvanizing Recovery |
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Synchronized Recession |
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Impromptu Policy Reaction |
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Uncertain Outlook |
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Calling for a
Well-Articulated and Effectively Coordinated Policy
Response |
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2. |
Fiscal Policy in
Advanced Countries: Effectiveness, Coordination, and
Solvency Issues |
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Overview |
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Fiscal Costs of the Crisis |
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Making the Most Out of
Fiscal Interventions |
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Treasuring Fiscal Solvency |
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Ensuring Fiscal
Sustainability: Policy Options |
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Conclusions and Policy
Implications |
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3. |
European Emerging
Economies in the Crisis: Impact and Recovery |
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Who Got Hurt More? Stylized
Facts |
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What Explains the Widened
Spreads: Known Vulnerabilities or the Convergence
Criteria Checklist? |
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Banking Sector Holds a Key
to the Recovery from the Crisis |
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Policy Implications |
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References |
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Boxes |
1. |
Has the Financial Crisis
Impaired Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area? |
2. |
Growth Prospects in
Emerging Europe After the Global Crisis |
3. |
A Case Study in
Coordination: Deposit Guarantee |
4. |
Redesigning Financial
Supervision in the European Union |
5. |
Sovereign Financing Needs
of Advanced Economies and the Rollover Risk |
6. |
Is the Stability and Growth
Pact an Obstacle to Adequate Fiscal Stabilization? |
7. |
Crisis Duration Across
Emerging Market |
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Tables |
1. |
European Countries: Real
GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 2006–10 |
2. |
European Countries:
External and Fiscal Balances, 2006–10 |
3. |
IMF Support for European
Countries Affected by the Global Crisis |
4. |
Headline Support for the
Financial Sector and Up-Front Financing Need |
5. |
Advanced European
Economies: Estimated Cost of Discretionary Measures,
2008–10 |
6. |
Ranges of Fiscal
Multipliers Used by IMF Country Teams |
7. |
The Case for Fiscal
Stimulus: Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Under Distressed
Financial Markets |
8. |
Coordination Gains:
Cumulated Effects of Fiscal Stimulus on a Large Euro
Area Country |
9. |
Sovereign Spreads:
Estimated Panel Regression |
10. |
Solvency Concerns Increases
Risk Premiums Thereby Reducing the Effectiveness of
Fiscal Stimulus |
11. |
A Snapshot of Emerging
Markets |
12. |
Did the Convergence
Criteria Matter? |
13. |
Correlation with Loan Loss
Provisions |
14. |
Banks in Emerging Europe
Were Imprudent in the Past |
15. |
Consumption Growth Is
Correlated with Credit Growth |
16. |
Consumption Growth Depends
upon Credit Growth |
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Figures |
1. |
Euro Area: Contribution to
Growth, 2006–08 |
2. |
Selected European
Countries: Headline and Core Inflation, January
2006–February 2009 |
3. |
iTraxx Credit Default Swap
Europe Financials’ Index, March 2007–April 2009 |
4. |
Generalized Impulse
Response Functions: Rate of Growth of Real GDP in
Response to Negative Standard Error Shock to U.S. Equity
Price Growth Rate |
5. |
Estimating Shifts in the
Global Price of Risk, 2007–March 2009 |
6. |
Selected European
Countries: Growth of Real Credit to Private Sector,
2006–January 2009 |
7. |
Europe, Asia, and United
States: Value of Trade, 1995-2007 |
8. |
Trade and Financial
Integration Within Europe |
9. |
Euro Area and United
Kingdom: Liquidity Premium, 2007-April 2009 |
10. |
Government Support,
Including Guarantees, to Banks, 2008-09 |
11. |
New Member States:
Country-Specific Components of Sovereign Spreads,
September 2008-January 2009 |
12. |
Key Short-Term Indicators |
13. |
Selected Advanced
Economies: Break-Even Inflation, 2007-April 2009 |
14. |
Germany, France, and Italy:
Trade and GDP, 1991-2008 |
15. |
Advanced European
Economies: Estimated Impact of Automatic Stabilizers on
Fiscal Balances, 2008-09 |
16. |
Advanced European
Economies: Fiscal Revenues During Episodes of House and
Equity Price Busts |
17. |
Projected Changes in Public
Debt |
18. |
Selected Euro Area
Countries: Sovereign Spreads and Financial Institutions'
Expected Default Probabilities, 2008-January 2009 |
19. |
Estimated Common Component
in Sovereign Spreads, 2001-January 2009 |
20. |
Contributions to the Change
in Spreads |
21. |
EMBIG Spreads,
2005-November 2008 |
22. |
Spreads and Banking System
Characteristics |
23. |
Residuals from the Fixed
Effects Regression for Sovereign Spreads, January
2001-October 2008 |