Executive Summary |
|
1. |
Outlook: Beyond the Crisis |
|
Fragile
Recovery |
|
Strong
Policy Response |
|
Further
Policy Action Required |
|
2. |
The Crisis and Potential
Output |
|
Worrying About an Unobservable |
|
Long-Term Effects |
|
Medium-Term Effects |
|
Policy
Implications |
|
3. |
Implications of the Fall in
Potential Output for Macroeconomic
Policies |
|
Crisis
Impact on Monetary Policy |
|
Impact
of the Crisis on Fiscal Policy |
|
4. |
Policies in Emerging
Economies for Coping with Heightened
Risk During Recovery |
|
Facing
a Riskier Environment |
|
Adverse
Effects on the Path to Recovery |
|
Challenging Policymakers |
|
Policy
Options |
|
Conclusions and Policy Implications |
|
References |
|
Boxes |
1. |
Employment and
Productivity Dynamics Around
Recessions: Germany, Spain, and the
United Kingdom |
2. |
Asset Price Swings,
Monetary Policy, and Prudential
Policy: A European View |
3. |
Currency Mismatches
in Emerging Europe |
4. |
Managing Fiscal Risks
Stemming from Public Interventions
to Support Financial Systems |
5. |
Risks to Medium-Term
Growth and Convergence in Emerging
Europe |
6. |
Effect of the
Financial Crisis on Potential Growth
in Western Europe |
|
Tables |
1. |
European Countries:
Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation,
2006–10 |
2. |
European Countries:
External and Fiscal Balances,
2006–10 |
3. |
IMF Support for
European Countries Affected by the
Global Crisis |
4. |
Gross Value-Added
Growth and Contributions, 1980–95
and 1995–2005 |
5. |
Potential Output and
Output Gaps in the Euro Area |
6. |
Macroeconomic
Performance Under Output Gap
Uncertainty |
7. |
Fiscal Adjustment
Required in Response to Various
Crisis Scenarios |
8. |
Volatility of Shocks
in the Euro Area versus Shocks in
the Emerging Economy, Precrisis and
Crisis |
|
Figures |
1. |
Euro Area:
Contribution to Growth, 2006–09 |
2. |
Selected European
Countries and the United States:
Unemployment, January 1999–August
2009 |
3. |
Euro Area: Yield
Curves and Equity Markets |
4. |
Selected European
Countries: Growth of Real Credit to
Private Sector, January 2006–May
2009 |
5. |
Euro Area: Real Bank
Credit and GDP Growth,
2000:Q1–2009:Q2 |
6. |
Selected European
Countries: Headline and Core
Inflation, January 2006–July 2009 |
7. |
Selected European
Countries: Key Short-Term Indicators |
8. |
Selected European
Countries: Bankruptcies, 2005–09 |
9. |
Selected Countries:
Employment Over the Business Cycle |
10. |
Selected Countries:
Central Banks' Total Assets, January
2007–August 2009 |
11. |
Selected EU Countries:
Debt Level and Cumulative Fiscal
Deficit |
12. |
Selected Countries:
Average Gross Value Added Growth,
1995–2005 |
13. |
Euro Area: Potential
(Medium-Term) Growth with Different
Methodologies, 1993:Q2–2009:Q1 |
14. |
Euro Area: "Real-Time"
and "True" Output Gaps,
1993:Q1–2007:Q2 |
15. |
The Benefits of a
Price Stability Commitment Under
Output Gap Uncertainty |
16. |
Selected European
Countries: Policy Rates, 2007–09 |
17. |
Euro Area: Potential
Output Scenarios, 1999–2014 |
18. |
Selected European
Countries: Projected Changes in
Public Debt |
19. |
Selected European
Countries: Required Improvement of
Primary Balance |
20. |
Selected European
Countries: Bond Spreads–Level and
Volatility, January 2006–June 2009 |
21. |
Selected European
Countries: Quarterly Revisions in
Fiscal Balance Forecast,
2004:Q1–2009:Q2 |
22. |
Selected European
Countries: WEO Revisions in
Projected Government Debt for 2010
in April 2009 over September 2008 |
23. |
Selected European
Countries: Exchange Rate Volatility,
2004:Q1–2009:Q1 |
24. |
Emerging Economies
Have Higher Volatility |
25. |
Effect of the Crisis
in the Emerging Economy |
26. |
Limiting
Discretionary Fiscal Policy Shocks
in the Emerging Economy |
27. |
Reacting to the
Exchange Rate in the Emerging
Economy |