|
1.
|
Advanced
Europe: Beyond Crisis Management |
|
The Recovery Continues |
|
Policies to Sustain the
Upswing |
|
Steps to Complete the
European House |
|
2.
|
Emerging
Europe: Toward Self-Sustained Growth |
|
Outlook for 2010 and
2011 |
|
What Can Policymakers
Do to Sustain the Recovery and Minimize Risks? |
|
3.
|
Emerging Europe
and the Global Crisis: Lessons from the Boom and
Bust |
|
How the Global
Financial and Economic Crisis Affected Emerging
Europe—A Narrative |
|
Why Was a Meltdown
Avoided? |
|
Lessons for Crisis
Prevention |
|
Conclusions |
|
References |
|
Boxes |
1. |
Fiscal
Consolidation: Minimizing Side Effects |
2. |
Toward a
More Integrated Financial Stability Framework for
the EU |
3. |
Why Is
Economic Growth Lagging in Europe and What Can Be
Done About It? |
4. |
Emerging
Europe Trade Linkages: The Pull from Within? |
5. |
Why Is
Credit Growth Weak—Demand or Supply? |
6. |
Financial Sector Levies in Europe |
7. |
Banking
Problems in Emerging Europe during 2008–09 |
8. |
IMF-Supported
Programs |
9. |
European
Bank Coordination Initiative (“Vienna Initiative”) |
10. |
Emerging
Europe Crisis Compared with Previous Emerging Market
Crises |
11. |
Foreign
Currency Mortgages, Maturity Mismatches, and Foreign
Currency Shortages: The Cases of Hungary and Poland |
|
Tables |
1. |
European
Countries: Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation,
2007–11 |
2. |
Selected
Countries: Net Exposure of Banks to Sovereign Debt
as Reported in CEBS Stress Test, March–July 2010 |
3. |
Advanced
European Countries: Main Macroeconomic Indicators,
2007–11 |
4. |
Emerging
Europe: Real GDP, Domestic Demand, Exports, and
Private Consumption, 2009–11 |
5. |
Emerging
Europe: CPI Inflation and Current Account Balance,
2009–11 |
6. |
Emerging
Europe: Evolution of Public Debt and General
Government Overall Balance, 2007–11 |
7. |
Emerging
Europe: Selected Financial Soundness Indicators,
2007–09 |
8. |
Emerging
Europe: Exports of Goods, 1995–2007 |
9. |
Emerging
Europe: Direction of Exports, 2007 |
10. |
Emerging
Europe: General Government Overall Balance |
11. |
Emerging
Europe: Gross International Sovereign Bond Issuance,
2008:Q1–2010:Q1 |
12. |
Emerging
Europe: Volume of International Syndicated Loans
Issuance to Banks in 2008 |
13. |
External
Positions of Western Banks vis-à-vis Emerging Europe |
14. |
Emerging
Europe: Domestic Currency Deposits, Oct 2008–Mar
2009 |
15. |
Emerging
Europe: Exchange Rate Pressure Index, September
2008–May 2009 |
16. |
Financing Packages for Emerging European Countries
Under IMF-Supported Programs |
|
Figures |
1. |
Euro
Area: Contribution to Growth, 2006:Q1–2010:Q2 |
2. |
Selected
European Countries: Conditional Standard Deviation
of Changes in 5-Year Sovereign CDS Spreads, January
2008–August 2010 |
3. |
Selected
European Countries and the United States: Real GDP,
2006:Q1–2011:Q4 |
4. |
Selected
European Countries: Key Short-Term Indicators |
5. |
Euro
Area: Financial Conditions Index, January
2003–August 2010 |
6. |
Selected
European Countries and the United States:
Unemployment Rate, January 1999–August 2010
|
7. |
Selected
European Countries: Headline and Core Inflation,
January 2006–August 2010 |
8. |
Euro
Area Countries: Sovereign and Banking Sector 5-Year
CDS Spreads, 2007–10 |
9A. |
Euro
Area: Real Bank Credit and GDP Growth,
2000:Q12010:Q2 |
9B. |
Euro
Area: Bank Loans and Bond Issuance, 2000:Q1–2009:Q4 |
10. |
Selected
Countries: Central Banks’ Total Assets, January
2007–August 2010 |
11. |
Selected
Advanced European Countries: Changes in General
Government Fiscal Deficits, 2010–13 |
12. |
Euro
Area: Structure of Expected Fiscal Consolidation,
2010–13 |
13. |
Selected
Countries: Structural Indicators |
14. |
Selected
Countries: Product and Labor Regulation and
Employment Growth Simulations |
15. |
Trade
Imbalance as Fraction of Total Bilateral Trade,
1948–2008 |
16A. |
Euro
Area: Bilateral Trade Deficits and Regulatory
Differences in Employment Protection, 2003 |
16B. |
Euro
Area: Bilateral Trade Deficits and Regulatory
Differences in Product Market Regulation, 2005
|
17. |
Selected
Euro Area Countries: Taylor Rule Implied Rates and
Actual Policy Rate, 1999:Q1–2009:Q4 |
18. |
Emerging
Europe: Real GDP Growth |
19. |
Emerging
Europe: Real GDP, 2008:Q3–2010:Q2 |
20. |
Emerging
Europe: Real Exports, 2008:Q3–2010:Q2 |
21. |
Emerging
Europe: Real Domestic Demand, 2008:Q3–2010:Q2 |
22. |
Emerging
Europe: Real Investment, 2008:Q3–2010:Q2 |
23. |
Emerging
Europe: Real Private Consumption, 2008:Q1–2010:Q2 |
24. |
Emerging
Europe: Contributions to Year-over-Year GDP Growth,
2010:Q1 |
25. |
Emerging
Europe: Gross Real Wage Growth |
26. |
Emerging
Europe: Unemployment Rate |
27. |
Emerging
Europe: Confidence Indicators |
28. |
Emerging
Europe: GDP Growth 2009 vs. 2010–11 |
29. |
Emerging
Europe: Precrisis Real Expenditure and Revenue
Growth, 2003–08 |
30. |
Selected
Regions: Deterioration of Public Finances |
31. |
Emerging
Europe: Financial Markets and Fiscal Vulnerabilities |
32. |
Emerging
Europe: Fiscal Adjustment, 2010–13 |
33. |
Emerging
Europe: Composition of Adjustment Plans, 2010–13 |
34. |
Emerging
Europe: Loan Loss Provisions |
35. |
Emerging
Europe: Provisions and Loan Loss Reserves |
36. |
Emerging
Europe: Holdings of Government Securities by Banks,
2009 |
37. |
Emerging
Europe: Precrisis Real GDP Growth and Contribution
of Domestic Demand |
38. |
Emerging
Europe and Selected Regions: Real Per Capita GDP
Growth, 1995–2007 |
39. |
Emerging
Europe: Domestic Demand Growth and GDP Growth,
2003–08 |
40. |
Emerging
Europe: Domestic Demand and Private Sector Credit
Growth, 2003–08 |
41. |
Emerging
Europe: Change in Real Estate Prices, 2003–08 |
42. |
Emerging
Europe: Net Capital Flows, 2000–07 |
43. |
Emerging
Europe: Cumulative Net Capital Inflows, 2003–08 |
44. |
Emerging
Europe: Change in External Position of Western Banks
and Private Sector Credit, 2003–08 |
45. |
Emerging
Europe: Consumer Price Inflation, 2006 and 2008 |
46. |
Emerging
Europe: Foreign Direct Investment Flow in Tradable
and Nontradable Sectors, 2007 |
47. |
Emerging
Europe: Private Sector Credit and Housing Prices,
2003–08 |
48. |
Emerging
Europe: Total Private Sector Credit by Currency,
2008 |
49. |
Emerging
Europe: CDS Spreads |
50. |
Emerging
Europe: EMBI Spreads |
51. |
Emerging
Europe: Stock Market Indices |
52. |
Emerging
Europe: Net Capital Flows to Emerging Europe,
2003–09 |
53. |
Emerging
Europe: Reduction of Net Capital Flows during the
Crisis of 2008–09 |
54. |
Emerging
Europe: Nominal Effective Exchange Rates |
55. |
Emerging
Europe: Real GDP Growth, 2008:Q3–2009:Q1 |
56. |
Emerging
Europe: Foreign Bank Ownership and Change in Net
Capital Flows, 2008–09 |
57. |
Emerging
Europe: Change in Deposit Rate from August 2008 to
Peak |
58. |
Emerging
Europe and Asia: Adjustment during the Crisis,
2007–09 |
59. |
Emerging
Europe: Average Real GDP Growth |
60. |
Emerging
Europe: Foreign Currency Loans to Households, 2008 |
61. |
Emerging
Europe: Private Sector Credit, 2003 and 2008 |
62. |
Emerging
Europe: Contribution to Change in Credit-to-GDP
Ratio, 2003–07 |
63. |
Emerging
Europe: Cumulative Change in Real Domestic Demand
and Real Fiscal Revenue, 2003–08 |
64. |
Selected
Countries: Cumulative Fiscal Savings Assuming a Cap
of 10 Percent Real Increase in Public Expenditures |