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World Economic Outlook
(Perspectivele Economice Mondiale)

Globalizarea şi inflaţia
aprilie 2006
 

Raportul apare de obicei de 2 ori pe an (în aprilie şi septembrie) şi reprezintă o analiză însoţită de previziuni efectuate de experţii FMI la nivel global, în secţiuni pe grupuri de ţări (inclusiv CSI). Raportul în cauză se axează pe chestiuni de politică economică şi evoluţiile pe plan economic, şi la el sunt anexate un şir de date statistice şi indicatori macroeconomici.

World Economic Outlook Databases
(baza de date on-line a indicatorilor macroeconomici)


Cuprins
(este tradusă doar secţiunea marcată de mai jos în galben)

189 kb

Assumptions and Conventions

 

Preface

 

Foreword

 

Chapter I. Economic Prospects and Policy Issues

Full Text

Boxes

Charts

 

United States and Canada: Robust Growth Set to Continue, but the U.S. Housing Market Is a Key Uncertainty

 

Western Europe: Is the Expansion Finally Gaining Traction?

 

Japan and Other Industrial Countries in Asia: Managing Three Major Transitions in Japan

 

Emerging Asia: Strong Growth Expected to Continue

 

Latin America: Improving the Business Climate Key to Raising Long-Term Growth

 

Emerging Europe: Addressing Rising Current Account Deficits

 

Commonwealth of Independent States: A Rebalancing of Growth is Needed to Sustain the Expansion

Comunitatea Statelor Independente: pentru menţinerea expansiunii este necesară o re-echilibrare a creşterii economice
(cu traducere in română!)
 

 

Africa: Sustaining the Recent Growth Acceleration

 

Middle East: Booming Asset Prices Across the Region

 

Appendix 1.1 Recent Developments in Commodity Markets

 

Appendix 1.2 The Global Implications of an Avian Flu Pandemic

 

References

 

Chapter II. Oil Prices and Global Imbalances

Full Text

Summary

Video Briefing/Sound bites

Boxes

Charts

Transcript of Video Presentation

 

How Does the Current Oil Price Shock Compare with Previous Episodes?

 

How Will the Current Oil Price Shock Affect Global Imbalances?

 

Conclusions

 

Appendix 2.1 Oil Prices and Global Imbalances: Methodology, Data, and Further Results

 

References

 

Chapter III. How Has Globalization Affected Inflation?

Full Text

Summary

Video Briefing/Sound bites

Boxes

Charts

Transcript of Video Presentation

 

Recent Inflation Developments

 

Understanding Globalization and Inflation: A Broad Framework

 

Globalization and Inflation: An Aggregate Perspective

 

A Sectoral Perspective on Globalization and Prices

 

A Cost Perspective on the Moderation in Sectoral Producer Prices

 

Summary and Policy Conclusions

 

Appendix 3.1 Sample Composition, Data Sources, and Methods

 

Appendix 3.2 A Sectoral Perspective on Globalization and Inflation

 

References

 

Chapter IV. Awash With Cash: Why Are Corporate Savings So High?

Full Text

Summary

Video Briefing/Sound bites

Boxes

Charts

Transcript of Video Presentation

 

What Has Been Driving the Increase in Corporate Excess Saving?

 

Are Current Trends in Corporate Excess Saving Sustainable?

 

Conclusions

 

Appendix 4.1. Econometric Methodology

 

References

 

61 kb

Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2006

 

Statistical Appendix

361 kb

Assumptions

 

What’s New

 

Data and Conventions

 

Classification of Countries

 

List of Tables

 

Output (Tables 1–6)

 

Inflation (Tables 7–11)

 

Financial Policies (Tables 12–19)

 

Foreign Trade (Tables 20–24)

 

Current Account Transactions (Tables 25–31)

 

Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 32–36)

 

External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 37–42)

 

Flow of Funds (Table 43)

 

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 44–45)

 

68 kb

World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics

 

Chapter I Boxes

Chart

Data

1.1

Long-Term Interest Rates from a Historical Perspective

Chart
Chart

Data
Data

1.2

The Impact of Recent Housing Market Adjustments in Industrial Countries

 

 

1.3

How Accurate Are the Forecasts in the World Economic Outlook?

Chart
Chart

Data
Data

1.4

How Much Progress Has Been Made in Addressing Global Imbalances?

 

 

1.5

The Doha Round After The Hong Kong SAR Meetings

Chart

Data

1.6

China’s GDP Revision: What Does It Mean for China and The Global Economy?

 

 

1.7

The Spanish Flu of 1918–19

 

 

 

 

Chapter II Boxes

Chart
Chart

Data
Data

2.1

How Rapidly Are Oil Exporters Spending Their Revenue Gains?

 

 

2.2

Recycling Petrodollars in the 1970s

 

 

2.3

The Impact of Petrodollars on U.S. and Emerging Market Bond Yields

 

Chapter III Boxes

Chart

Data

3.1

Globalization and Inflation in Emerging Markets

Chart

Data

3.2

Globalization and Low Inflation in a Historical Perspective

Chart

Data

3.3

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices

 

Chapter IV Boxes

Chart
Chart

Data
Data

4.1

Drawing the Line Between Personal and Corporate Savings

Chart
Chart

Data
Data

4.2

Trends in the Financial Sector’s Profits and Savings

 

 

A1

Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

 

Tables

1.1

Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

1.2

Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows

1.3

Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt

1.4

Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment

1.5

Selected Economies: Current Account Positions

1.6

Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance

1.7

Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance

1.8

Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance

1.9

Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance

1.10

Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance

1.11

Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance

1.12

Global Oil Demand by Region

1.13

Nonenergy Commodity Prices

2.1

Increase in Fuel Exporters’ Net Oil Exports

2.2

Change in Net Oil Exports, 2002–05

2.3

Petroleum Reserves

2.4

Composition of Merchandise Imports

2.5

Impact of Oil Price Shock: Greater Spending by Fuel Exporters

2.6

Impact of Oil Price Shock: Delayed Pass-Through to Core Inflation

3.1

Estimates of Output-Inflation Sensitivity and Inflation Persistence in Advanced Economies

3.2

The Cumulative Impact of a 1 Percent Decrease in Real Import Prices on Inflation

3.3

Impact of Trade Openness on Relative Producer Price Inflation

3.4

Producer Price Inflation by Cost Components

3.5

Impact of Trade Openness on Productivity, Labor Compensation, and Unit Labor Costs

3.6

Inflation in Advanced Economies: SUR Estimates

3.7

Classification of Sectors by Technological and Skill Intensity

3.8

Impact of Changes in Import Prices on Relative Producer Price Inflation

3.9

Impact of Trade Openness on Cost Components

4.1

Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Change in Selected Variables

4.2

Group of Seven (G-7) Countries: Cash Accumulation by Size of Firm’s Sales

4.3

Defined Benefits Corporate Pension Plans: Assets Over Liabilities

4.4

Weighted Average, Median, and 90th Percentile of Selected Series, by Change in Cash to Total Assets Quartile, 2001–04

4.5

Regression Results: Dependent Variable—Change in Cash and Short-Term Investments

 

Chapter I Charts

Chart

Data

1.1

Prospects for World GDP Growth

Chart

Data

1.2

Global Indicators

Chart

Data

1.3

Current and Forward-Looking Indicators

Chart

Data

1.4

Developments in Mature Financial Markets

Chart

Data

1.5

Emerging Market Financial Conditions

Chart

Data

1.6

Global Exchange Rate Developments

Chart

Data

1.7

Global Inflation

Chart

Data

1.8

Global Outlook

Chart

Data

1.9

Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Major Advanced Economies

Chart

Data

1.10

How Will Global Imbalances Adjust?

Chart

Data

1.11

United States: The Housing Market and Growth

Chart

Data

1.12

Western Europe: Social Policy Indicators and Outcomes

Chart

Data

1.13

Japan: Reversing the Relative Decline in per Capita GDP Growth

Chart

Data

1.14

Emerging Asia: Understanding Recent Developments in the Current Account

Chart

Data

1.15

Latin America: Public Debt Ratios and Investment

Chart

Data

1.16

Emerging Europe: Current Account Deficits Remain High

Chart

Data

1.17

Commonwealth of Independent States: Unbalanced Growth Raises Concerns About the Outlook

Chart

Data

1.18

Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth, Investment and Economic Transitions

Chart

Data

1.19

Middle East: Surging Asset Markets

Chart

Data

1.20

Crude Oil Prices, Futures, and Petroleum Product Prices

Chart

Data

1.21

World Refinery Capacity, Spare Capacity and Production

Chart

Data

1.22

Commercial Oil Inventories, Spot and Future Prices

Chart

Data

1.23

Energy Prices, Taxes, and Fuel Subsidies

Chart

Data

1.24

Nonenergy Commodities

Chart

Data

1.25

Semiconductor Market

 

Chapter II Charts

Chart

Data

2.1

Current Account Balances and Net Foreign Asset Positions

Chart

Data

2.2

Real Oil Prices and Net Oil Exports

Chart

Data

2.3

Fuel Exporters’ Cumulative Current Account Balances and Capital Flows

Chart

Data

2.4

Fuel Exporters’ Cumulative Current Account Balances and Identified Asset Purchases

Chart

Data

2.5

Current Account and Oil Trade Balances

Chart

Data

2.6

Impact of Oil Price Shocks on External Imbalances, 1972–2004

Chart
Chart

Data

2.7

Adjustment to Oil Price Shocks, 1979:Q2–2003:Q4

Chart
Chart

Data

2.8

Additional Results: Adjustment to Oil Price Shocks, 1979:Q2–2003:Q4

 

Chapter III Charts

Chart

Data

3.1

Inflation

Chart

Data

3.2

Inflation Volatility

Chart

Data

3.3

Prices of Goods and Services

Chart

Data

3.4

Trade and Financial Openness

Chart

Data

3.5

Inflation over the Business Cycle, 1961–2003

Chart

Data

3.6

Selected Structural Indicators

Chart

Data

3.7

Import Prices

Chart

Data

3.8

The Impact of Import Prices on CPI Inflation

Chart

Data

3.9

Inflation in Manufacturing and Business Services in Selected Industrial Countries

Chart

Data

3.10

Relative Producer Price Inflation by Technological and Skill Intensity

Chart

Data

3.11

Producer Price Inflation and Openness

Chart

Data

3.12

Contributions to Declines in Relative Producer Prices

Chart

Data

3.13

Producer Price Inflation by Cost Components

 

Chapter IV Charts

Chart

Data

4.1

Group of Seven (G-7), Excluding Germany: Gross Saving, Capital Spending, and Net Lending/Borrowing

Chart

Data

4.2

Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Gross Saving, Capital Spending, and Net Lending/Borrowing

Chart

Data

4.3

Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Gross Operating Surplus and Profits

Chart

Data

4.4

Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Financial Accounts, Selected Variables

Chart

Data

4.5

Financial Transactions: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector of the G-7 Countries

Chart

Data

4.6

Cash Accumulation in the G-7 Countries by Industry

Chart

Data

4.7

Sales Volatility and Intangible Assets in the G-7 Countries

Chart

Data

4.8

Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Debt

 

Source