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Assumptions and Conventions, Preface, Foreword |
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Executive Summary |
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Chapter 1.
Global Prospects and Policy Issues |
Full Text |
Video Briefing
| Boxes | Charts |
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Global Economic Environment |
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Outlook and Short-Term Risks |
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Cross-Country Spillovers: Can the
Global Economy Decouple from a U.S. Slowdown? |
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Medium-Term Challenges: Can the
Productivity Boom Be Sustained? |
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Policy Challenges |
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Appendix 1.1. Recent Developments in
Commodity Markets |
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References |
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Chapter 2.
Country and Regional Perspectives |
Full Text
| Boxes | Charts
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United States and Canada: How Much
Will the U.S. Economy Slow? |
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Western Europe: Can Recent Vigor Be
Sustained? |
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Industrial Asia: Japan's Expansion
Remains on Track |
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Emerging Asia: How Resilient Is the
Region to a U.S. Slowdown? |
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Latin America: Boosting Productivity
Is the Key to Sustaining Growth |
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Emerging Europe: Integrating with the
European Union |
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Commonwealth of Independent
States: Strong Growth but More Economic Diversification Needed
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Africa: Sustaining Recent Growth
Momentum |
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Middle East: Expanding the Benefits
of the Oil Boom |
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References |
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Chapter 3.
Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External Imbalances |
Full Text | Summary
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Briefing
| Boxes | Charts
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Past Episodes of Large External
Imbalances: An Event Analysis |
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How Responsive Are U.S. Trade Volumes
to Exchange Rate Movements? |
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Implications for Global Imbalances |
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Conclusions |
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Appendix 3.1. Event Analysis:
Methodology and Data |
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Appendix 3.2. Econometric Estimates
of Trade Models |
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References |
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Chapter 4.
Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy |
Full Text |
Summary |
Video Briefing
| Boxes | Charts
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U.S. Economy and International
Business Cycle Fluctuations |
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Identifying Common Elements in
International Business Cycle Fluctuations |
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How the United States Affects the
Global EconomyA Model-Based Simulation Analysis |
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Summary and Conclusions |
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Appendix 4.1. Econometric Methodology |
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Appendix 4.2. Common Elements in
International Business Cycle Fluctuations: Description of the
Dynamic Factor Models |
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References |
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Chapter 5. The Globalization of Labor |
Full Text |
Summary |
Video Briefing
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How Globalized Is Labor? |
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How Has the Globalization of Labor
Affected Workers in Advanced Economies? |
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Summary and Policy Implications |
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Appendix 5.1. Data Sources and
Methods |
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References |
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Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2007 |
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Statistical Appendix |
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Assumptions |
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What's New |
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Data and Conventions |
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Classification of Countries |
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General Features and Composition of
Countries in the World Economic Outlook |
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Classification |
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General Features and Composition of
Countries in the World Economic Outlook Classification |
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List of boxes |
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Output (Tables 16) |
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Inflation (Tables 711) |
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Financial Policies (Tables 1219) |
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Foreign Trade (Tables 2024) |
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Current Account Transactions (Tables
2531) |
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Balance of Payments and External
Financing (Tables 3236) |
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External Debt and Debt Service (Tables
3742) |
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Flow of Funds (Table 43) |
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Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables
4445) |
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World Economic Outlook
and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected
Topics |
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Chapter 1 Boxes |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
1.1 |
Understanding the Link Between Oil Prices and the
World Economy |
Chart |
Data |
1.2 |
Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries |
Chart |
Data |
1.3 |
Oil Consumption Across Major Countries: Is the
United States Different? |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
1.4 |
Hedging Against Oil Price Volatility |
Chapter 2 Boxes |
Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
Housing Market Slowdowns |
Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
Lessons from Successful European Labor Market
Reformers |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
2.3 |
Is China Investing Too Much? |
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Chapter 3 Boxes |
Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
External Sustainability and Financial Integration |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
3.2 |
Large and Persistent Current Account Imbalances |
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3.3 |
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices and
External Adjustment |
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Chapter 4 Boxes |
Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
Financial Linkages and Spillovers |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
4.2 |
Macroeconomic Conditions in Industrial Countries
and Financial Flows to Emerging Markets |
Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
Spillovers and International Business Cycle
Synchronization: A Broader Perspective |
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Chapter 5 Boxes |
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5.1 |
Emigration and Trade: How Do They Affect
Developing Countries? |
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Appendix Boxes |
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A1. |
Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the
Projections for Selected Advanced Economies |
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Tables |
1.1 |
Overview of the World Economic
Outlook Projections |
1.2 |
Emerging Market and Developing
Countries: Net Capital Flows |
1.3 |
Major Advanced Economies: General
Government Fiscal Balances and Debt |
1.4 |
Global Oil Demand by Region |
1.5 |
Effects of Petroleum Products on
Production of Selected Grains in the United States |
2.1 |
Advanced Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, and Unemployment |
2.2 |
Advanced Economies: Current Account
Positions |
2.3 |
Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
2.4 |
Selected Western Hemisphere
Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
2.5 |
Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer
Prices, and Current Account Balance |
2.6 |
Commonwealth of Independent States:
Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
2.7 |
Selected African Countries: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
2.8 |
Selected Middle Eastern Countries:
Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
3.1 |
Summary Statistics of Episodes of
Reversals |
3.2 |
Standard Trade Model: Estimates of
U.S. Trade Elasticities |
3.3 |
List of Reversal Episodes |
3.4 |
List of Large and Persistent Episodes |
3.5 |
Advanced Economies: Contractionary
and Expansionary Deficit Reversals |
3.6 |
Emerging Markets: Contractionary and
Expansionary Surplus Reversals |
3.7 |
Variable Definitions |
3.8 |
Standard Empirical Trade Model:
Long-Run U.S. Trade Elasticities |
3.9 |
Long-Run U.S. Trade Elasticities and
Aggregation Bias |
3.10 |
Long-Run U.S. Import Elasticities and
Vertical Integration |
3.11 |
Nonlinearity Tests (p value)
and Thresholds for Changes in Relative Import Prices |
3.12 |
Error Correction Model for U.S.
Imports, Sample 1973:Q12006:Q3 |
4.1 |
Role of Large Economies in the Global
Economy |
4.2 |
Export Orientation by Region |
4.3 |
External Portfolio Assets and
Liabilities by Region |
4.4 |
U.S. Downturns and Global Growth |
4.5 |
Growth and Spillovers (1) |
4.6 |
Growth and Spillovers (2) |
4.7 |
Contributions to Output Fluctuations |
4.8 |
Consumption |
4.9 |
Investment |
4.10 |
Contributions to Business Cycle
Fluctuations in G-7 Countries |
5.1 |
Classification of Sectors by Skill
Intensity |
5.2 |
Impact of Labor Globalization and
Technological Change on Labor Shares |
5.3 |
Impact of Labor Globalization and
Technological Change on the Skilled and Unskilled Labor Shares |
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Chapter 1 Charts
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Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
Global Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
1.2 |
Current and Forward-Looking Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
1.3 |
Global Inflation |
Chart |
Data |
1.4 |
Developments in Mature Financial Markets |
Chart |
Data |
1.5 |
Mature Financial Market Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
1.6 |
Emerging Market Financial Conditions |
Chart |
Data |
1.7 |
External Developments in Major Advanced Economies |
Chart |
Data |
1.8 |
External Developments in Emerging Market
Countries |
Chart |
Data |
1.9 |
Global Outlook |
Chart |
Data |
1.10 |
Risks to the Global Outlook |
Chart |
Data |
1.11 |
Productivity and Labor Cost Developments in
Selected Advanced Economies |
Chart |
Data |
1.12 |
Measures of the Output Gap and Capacity Pressures |
Chart |
Data |
1.13 |
Current Account Balances and Net Foreign Assets |
Chart |
Data |
1.14 |
Global Productivity Performance |
Chart |
Data |
1.15 |
Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts |
Chart |
Data |
1.16 |
Saving and Investment in Emerging Market and
Oil-Producing Economies |
Chart |
Data |
1.17 |
Average Petroleum Spot and Futures Prices, and
Selected Energy Product Prices |
Chart |
Data |
1.18 |
Demand and Prices of Petroleum Products in
Selected Developing and OECD Countries |
Chart |
Data |
1.19 |
Oil Supply, OECD Inventories, and OPEC Spare
Capacity |
Chart |
Data |
1.20 |
Actual and Expected Semiannual World Consumption
and Non-OPEC Production Growth, and Brent Crude Oil Prices |
Chart |
Data |
1.21 |
Commodity Price Indices and Selected Metals and
Food Price Indices |
Chart |
Data |
1.22 |
Semiconductor Market |
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Chapter 2 Charts |
Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
United States: How Much Will the U.S. Economy
Slow? |
Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
United States: Developments in the Residential
and Nonresidential Construction Sectors |
Chart |
Data |
2.3 |
Western Europe: Productivity Is Failing to Catch
Up |
Chart |
Data |
2.4 |
Western Europe: Need to do More to Raise Labor
Utilization |
Chart |
Data |
2.5 |
Japan: Understanding Developments in Domestic
Demand |
Chart |
Data |
2.6 |
Emerging Asia: Assessing the Resilience to a
Global Slowdown |
Chart |
Data |
2.7 |
Latin America: Productivity Is Lagging |
Chart |
Data |
2.8 |
Emerging Europe: Convergence with the European
Union |
Chart |
Data |
2.9 |
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Further
Return Needed to Raise Investment Levels |
Chart |
Data |
2.10 |
Sub-Saharan Africa: Can Recent Growth Momentum Be
Sustained? |
Chart |
Data |
2.11 |
Middle East: Investment in Non-Oil Sectors Key to
Employment Growth |
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Chapter 3 Charts |
Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
Episodes of Deficit Reversals and Large and
Persistent Deficits |
Chart |
Data |
3.2 |
Advanced Economies: Key Indicators During Deficit
Reversals |
Chart |
Data |
3.3 |
Deficit Reversals in Advanced Economies: Episode
Characteristics by Average Change in GDP Growth |
Chart |
Data |
3.4 |
Advanced Economies: Total Change in Real
Effective Exchange Rate and Average Change in GDP Growth During
Deficit Reversals |
Chart |
Data |
3.5 |
Episodes of Surplus Reversals and Large and
Persistent Surpluses |
Chart |
Data |
3.6 |
Key Indicators During Surplus Reversals |
Chart |
Data |
3.7 |
Surplus Reversals in Emerging Markets: Episode
Characteristics by Average Change in GDP Growth |
Chart |
Data |
3.8 |
Oil Exporters: Surplus Reversals |
Chart |
Data |
3.9 |
Thresholds in Relative Trade Prices, Real
Effective Exchange Rate, and Flexibility of Markets |
Chart |
Data |
3.10 |
United States: Trade Flows, Real Effective
Exchange Rate (REER), and Growth Differential with Trading Partners |
Chart |
Data |
3.11 |
Required Exchange Rate Change for a 1 Percentage
Point Reduction in the Ratio of U.S. Trade Deficit to GDP |
Chart |
Data |
3.12 |
Sectoral Price Elasticities of Trade |
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Chapter 4 Charts |
Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
U.S. Recessions and Real GDP Growth by Region |
Chart |
Data |
4.2 |
Trade Orientation |
Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
United States: Real Imports, Real Effective
Exchange Rate, Real Stock Returns, and Interest Rates During
Recessions and Slowdowns |
Chart |
Data |
4.4 |
Output Gaps and Structural Characteristics During
U.S. Recessions |
Chart |
Data |
4.5 |
Growth Declines and Spillovers: Regional
Implications |
Chart |
Data |
4.6 |
Impact of Growth Declines in the United States
and Japan |
Chart |
Data |
4.7 |
Global Factor |
Chart |
Data |
4.8 |
Global Implications of a Disturbance to U.S.
Private Demand |
Chart |
Data |
4.9 |
Global Growth and Inflation with Correlated
Disturbances and Delayed Monetary Policy Response |
Chart |
Data |
4.10 |
Limited In-Sample Persistence of U.S. Growth
Shocks |
Chart |
Data |
4.11 |
Impact of U.S. Growth Declines on Growth in Latin
America: Effects by Country |
Chart |
Data |
4.12 |
Impact of Euro Area Growth Declines on Growth in
Latin America: Effects by Country |
Chart |
Data |
4.13 |
Impact of U.S. Growth Declines on Growth in
Emerging Asia: Effects by Country |
Chart |
Data |
4.14 |
Impact of Japanese Growth Declines on Growth in
Emerging Asia: Effects by Country |
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Chapter 5 Charts |
Chart |
Data |
5.1 |
Alternative Measures of Global Labor Supply |
Chart |
Data |
5.2 |
Immigration and Trade |
Chart |
Data |
5.3 |
Share of Developing Countries in Trade |
Chart |
Data |
5.4 |
Developing Countries: Exports of Skilled
Manufacturing Goods and Services |
Chart |
Data |
5.5 |
Offshoring by Advanced Economies |
Chart |
Data |
5.6 |
Advanced Economies: Offshoring by Category of
Inputs |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
5.7 |
Advanced Economies: Labor Income Shares |
Chart |
Data |
5.8 |
Advanced Economies: Labor Compensation and
Employment |
Chart |
Data |
5.9 |
Advanced Economies: Labor Compensation and
Employment in Skilled and Unskilled Sectors |
Chart |
Data |
5.10 |
Catch-Up by Emerging Markets' Manufacturing Wages |
Chart |
Data |
5.11 |
Information and Communications Technology (ICT)
Capital, Patents, and Labor Market Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
5.12 |
Contributions to the Annual Change in Labor Share |
Chart |
Data |
5.13 |
Advanced Economies: Contributions to the Annual
Change in the Labor Share by Skill Level |
Chart |
Data |
5.14 |
Effects of Changes in Trade Prices on Labor Share,
Output, and Labor Compensation |
Chart |
Data |
5.15 |
Advanced Economies' Labor Income Share, Labor
Compensation, and Employment: Robustness to Alternative Skill
Classification |