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World Economic Outlook Database (Apr-2011)

World Economic Outlook
Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery: Unemployment, Commodities,
and Capital Flows

April 2011

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.

 

Press Conference: WEO Analytical Chapters 3 and 4       
Webcast

Download full text (4.2mb) PDF


Contents:

Chapter 3. Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances
 
Full Text  |   Summary  |   Boxes  |   Figures  |   Video
 


What Are the Main Findings?

Has Oil Become a Scarce Resource?

Oil Scarcity and the Global Economy

Implications for the Outlook and Policies

Appendix 3.1. Low-Frequency Filtering for Extracting Business Cycle Trends

Appendix 3.2. The Energy and Oil Empirical Models

References

 
Chapter 4. International Capital Flows: Reliable or Fickle?
 
Full Text  |   Summary  |   Figures  |   Video
 


What Are the Main Findings?

Trends in Net Capital Flows: Size, Composition, Volatility, and Persistence

Capital Flows and the Global Environment

Does Direct Financial Exposure Affect the Response of Private Capital Flows to Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy?

Policy Implications and Conclusions

Appendix 4.1. Classification of Economies and Data Sources

Appendix 4.2. Composition, Volatility, and Persistence of Net Private Capital Flows across Emerging Market Regions

Appendix 4.3. Global Factor Model

Appendix 4.4. Regression Methodology and Robustness Checks

References

 
 
Boxes
Chart Data 3.1 Life Cycle Constraints on Global Oil Production
Chart Data
Data
3.2 Unconventional Natural Gas: A Game Changer?
Chart   3.3 Short-Term Effects of Oil Shocks on Economic Activity
 
 
Tables
3.1 Oil Demand Price and Income Elasticities
3.2 Oil Demand Price and Income Elasticities, Including Oil-Exporting Countries
3.3 Oil Demand Price and Income Elasticities in the Extended Sample
3.4 Oil Demand Price and Income Short-Term Elasticities: High versus Low Oil Price Environments
3.2.1 Unconventional Natural Gas Resources, 2009
3.2.2 Composition of Wholesale Gas Transactions: United States and Europe, 2007
3.3.1 Annualized Percent Impact of a 10 Percent Oil Price Increase on Real U.S. GDP Growth after One Year
4.1 Economy Groupings
4.2 Data Sources
4.3 Baseline Results
4.4 U.S. Direct Financial Exposure Weight
 
Figures
Chart Data 3.1 Energy Prices and Long-Term Price Trends
Chart Data 3.2 Global Energy Demand, 19802008
Chart Data 3.3 Relationship between per Capita Energy Consumption and GDP Growth
Chart Data 3.4 Primary Energy Consumption
Chart Data 3.5 Oil Consumption in China and in Selected Advanced Economies
Chart Data 3.6 The Big Switch: Oil Share in the Electric Power Sector
Chart Data 3.7 Global Oil Market Developments
Chart Data 3.8 Projected Growth in Crude Oil Capacity
Chart Data 3.9 Oil Scarcity and the Global Economy: Benchmark Scenario
Chart Data 3.10 Alternative Scenario 1: Greater Substitution away from Oil
Chart Data 3.11 Alternative Scenario 2: Greater Decline in Oil Production
Chart Data 3.12 Alternative Scenario 3: Greater Economic Role for Oil
Chart Data 3.1.1 Life Cycle of Global Oil Production
Chart Data 3.2.1 U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 19982009
Chart Data 3.2.2 U.S. Natural Gas versus Oil Spot Prices
Chart Data 4.1 The Collapse and Recovery of Cross-Border Capital Inflows
Chart Data 4.2 The Evolution of Gross and Net Capital Flows
Chart Data 4.3 The Recovery of Net Private Capital Flows
Chart Data 4.4 The Recovery of Net Capital Flows and Their Composition
Chart Data 4.5 The Size and Composition of Net Private Capital Flows during Waves of Large Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
Chart Data 4.6 Regional Variation in Net Private Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
Chart Data 4.7 The Relative Importance of Various Types of Flow
Chart Data 4.8 Historical Trends: A Shift away from Debt-Creating Flows
Chart Data 4.9 The Volatility of Net Private Capital Flows
Chart Data 4.10 Correlations between Net Flows of Various Types and the Rest of the Financial Account
Chart Data 4.11 The Persistence of Net Private Capital Flows
Chart Data 4.12 Historical Periods of Easy External Financing and High Growth Differential between Emerging Market and Advanced Economies
Chart Data 4.13 Net Private Capital Flows during Periods of Easy External Financing and High Growth Differential between Emerging Market and Advanced Economies
Chart Data 4.14 Net Private Flows to Emerging Market Economies under Alternative Financing Conditions
Chart Data 4.15 Common Factors Underlying the Variation in Net Private Capital Flows to Advanced and Emerging Market Economies
Chart Data 4.16 Difference in the Response of Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening across Economies
Chart Data 4.17 Difference in the Response of Emerging Market Economy Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening by Selected Economic Characteristics
Chart Data 4.18 Difference in the Response of Emerging Market Economy Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening by Type of Flow
Chart Data 4.19 Difference in the Response of Emerging Market Economy Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening under Alternative Global Economic Conditions
Chart Data 4.20 The Relative Importance of Various Types of Flow across Emerging Market Regions
Chart Data 4.21 The Volatility of Net Private Capital Flows across Emerging Market Regions
Chart Data 4.22 The Persistence of Net Private Capital Flows across Emerging Market Regions
Chart Data 4.23 Realized and Unanticipated Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy over Time
Chart Data 4.24 Robustness Checks for the Difference in Response of Net Private Capital Flows to Directly Financially Exposed Emerging Market Economies


 
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