| Press Conference: WEO Analytical Chapters 3 and 4
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Contents:
| Chapter 3. Oil
Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances |
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| Full Text | Summary | Boxes | Figures | Video | |||
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Has Oil Become a Scarce Resource? Oil Scarcity and the Global Economy Implications for the Outlook and Policies Appendix 3.1. Low-Frequency Filtering for Extracting Business Cycle Trends Appendix 3.2. The Energy and Oil Empirical Models References |
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| Chapter 4.
International Capital Flows: Reliable or Fickle? |
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| Full Text | Summary | Figures | Video | |||
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Trends in Net Capital Flows: Size, Composition, Volatility, and Persistence Capital Flows and the Global Environment Does Direct Financial Exposure Affect the Response of Private Capital Flows to Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy? Policy Implications and Conclusions Appendix 4.1. Classification of Economies and Data Sources Appendix 4.2. Composition, Volatility, and Persistence of Net Private Capital Flows across Emerging Market Regions Appendix 4.3. Global Factor Model Appendix 4.4. Regression Methodology and Robustness Checks References |
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| Boxes | |||
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | Life Cycle Constraints on Global Oil Production |
| Chart |
Data Data |
3.2 | Unconventional Natural Gas: A Game Changer? |
| Chart | 3.3 | Short-Term Effects of Oil Shocks on Economic Activity | |
| Tables | |||
| 3.1 | Oil Demand Price and Income Elasticities | ||
| 3.2 | Oil Demand Price and Income Elasticities, Including Oil-Exporting Countries | ||
| 3.3 | Oil Demand Price and Income Elasticities in the Extended Sample | ||
| 3.4 | Oil Demand Price and Income Short-Term Elasticities: High versus Low Oil Price Environments | ||
| 3.2.1 | Unconventional Natural Gas Resources, 2009 | ||
| 3.2.2 | Composition of Wholesale Gas Transactions: United States and Europe, 2007 | ||
| 3.3.1 | Annualized Percent Impact of a 10 Percent Oil Price Increase on Real U.S. GDP Growth after One Year | ||
| 4.1 | Economy Groupings | ||
| 4.2 | Data Sources | ||
| 4.3 | Baseline Results | ||
| 4.4 | U.S. Direct Financial Exposure Weight | ||
| Figures | |||
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | Energy Prices and Long-Term Price Trends |
| Chart | Data | 3.2 | Global Energy Demand, 1980–2008 |
| Chart | Data | 3.3 | Relationship between per Capita Energy Consumption and GDP Growth |
| Chart | Data | 3.4 | Primary Energy Consumption |
| Chart | Data | 3.5 | Oil Consumption in China and in Selected Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 3.6 | The Big Switch: Oil Share in the Electric Power Sector |
| Chart | Data | 3.7 | Global Oil Market Developments |
| Chart | Data | 3.8 | Projected Growth in Crude Oil Capacity |
| Chart | Data | 3.9 | Oil Scarcity and the Global Economy: Benchmark Scenario |
| Chart | Data | 3.10 | Alternative Scenario 1: Greater Substitution away from Oil |
| Chart | Data | 3.11 | Alternative Scenario 2: Greater Decline in Oil Production |
| Chart | Data | 3.12 | Alternative Scenario 3: Greater Economic Role for Oil |
| Chart | Data | 3.1.1 | Life Cycle of Global Oil Production |
| Chart | Data | 3.2.1 | U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 1998–2009 |
| Chart | Data | 3.2.2 | U.S. Natural Gas versus Oil Spot Prices |
| Chart | Data | 4.1 | The Collapse and Recovery of Cross-Border Capital Inflows |
| Chart | Data | 4.2 | The Evolution of Gross and Net Capital Flows |
| Chart | Data | 4.3 | The Recovery of Net Private Capital Flows |
| Chart | Data | 4.4 | The Recovery of Net Capital Flows and Their Composition |
| Chart | Data | 4.5 | The Size and Composition of Net Private Capital Flows during Waves of Large Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.6 | Regional Variation in Net Private Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.7 | The Relative Importance of Various Types of Flow |
| Chart | Data | 4.8 | Historical Trends: A Shift away from Debt-Creating Flows |
| Chart | Data | 4.9 | The Volatility of Net Private Capital Flows |
| Chart | Data | 4.10 | Correlations between Net Flows of Various Types and the Rest of the Financial Account |
| Chart | Data | 4.11 | The Persistence of Net Private Capital Flows |
| Chart | Data | 4.12 | Historical Periods of Easy External Financing and High Growth Differential between Emerging Market and Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.13 | Net Private Capital Flows during Periods of Easy External Financing and High Growth Differential between Emerging Market and Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.14 | Net Private Flows to Emerging Market Economies under Alternative Financing Conditions |
| Chart | Data | 4.15 | Common Factors Underlying the Variation in Net Private Capital Flows to Advanced and Emerging Market Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.16 | Difference in the Response of Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening across Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.17 | Difference in the Response of Emerging Market Economy Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening by Selected Economic Characteristics |
| Chart | Data | 4.18 | Difference in the Response of Emerging Market Economy Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening by Type of Flow |
| Chart | Data | 4.19 | Difference in the Response of Emerging Market Economy Net Private Capital Flows to U.S. Monetary Tightening under Alternative Global Economic Conditions |
| Chart | Data | 4.20 | The Relative Importance of Various Types of Flow across Emerging Market Regions |
| Chart | Data | 4.21 | The Volatility of Net Private Capital Flows across Emerging Market Regions |
| Chart | Data | 4.22 | The Persistence of Net Private Capital Flows across Emerging Market Regions |
| Chart | Data | 4.23 | Realized and Unanticipated Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy over Time |
| Chart | Data | 4.24 | Robustness Checks for the Difference in Response of Net Private Capital Flows to Directly Financially Exposed Emerging Market Economies |
