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Preface |
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Foreword (Data) |
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Executive Summary |
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Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policy Issues |
Full Text |
Video Briefing | Boxes |
Figures
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Strong Global Growth Is Being
Confronted by Turbulent Financial Conditions
The Baseline Outlook Has Been Marked
Down Moderately—And Downside Risks Have Intensified
Living with Heavy Foreign Exchange
Inflows
Sustaining Robust Growth
Policy Challenges
Appendix 1.1 Developments in
Commodity Markets
Appendix 1.2 Climate Change: Economic
Impact and Policy Responses
References |
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Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives |
Full Text | Boxes |
Figures |
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United States and Canada:
Uncertainties About the U.S. Outlook Have Risen
Western Europe: How Resilient Is the
Recovery?
Industrial Asia: Deflation Is Not Yet
Decisively Beaten in Japan
Emerging Asia: Successfully Managing
Strong Foreign Exchange Inflows
Latin America—Responding to Surging
Foreign Exchange Inflows
Emerging Europe: Brisk Activity,
Rising Imbalances
Commonwealth of Independent States:
Tensions Between Inflation and Exchange Rate Objectives
Sub-Saharan Africa—Benefiting from
Globalization
Middle East: Balancing Cyclical and
Long–Term Considerations in Fiscal Policy
References |
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Chapter 3. Managing Large Capital Inflows |
Full Text |
Summary |
Video Briefing | Boxes |
Figures |
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Two Waves of Large Capital Inflows to
Emerging Markets
Identifying Episodes of Large Capital
Inflows
Policy Responses to Large Capital
Inflows
Linking Macroeconomic Outcomes and
Policy Responses
Conclusions
Appendix 3.1. Event Analysis and
Policy Indices: Methodologies and Data
References |
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Chapter 4. Globalization and Inequality |
Full Text |
Summary |
Video Briefing | Boxes |
Figures |
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Recent Trends in Inequality and
Globalization
What Is the Impact of Globalization
on Inequality?
An Empirical Investigation of
Globalization and Inequality
Conclusions and Policy Implications
Appendix 4.1. Data Sources and
Methods
References |
|
Chapter 5. The Changing Dynamics of the Global
Business Cycle |
Full Text |
Summary |
Video Briefing | Boxes |
Figures |
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|
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Global Business Cycles: A Historical
Perspective
Has the World Economy Become More
Stable?
What Is Driving the Moderation of the
Global Business Cycle?
Conclusions
Appendix 5.1. Data and Methods
References |
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Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook,
September 2007 |
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Statistical Appendix |
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Assumptions |
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What's New |
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Data and Conventions |
|
Classification of
Countries |
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General Features and
Composition of Groups in the World
Economic Outlook Classification |
|
Classification
|
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List of Tables Part A |
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Output (Tables A1–A4) |
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Inflation (Tables A5–A7) |
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Financial Policies (Table
A8) |
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Foreign Trade (Table A9) |
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Current Account
Transactions (Tables A10–A12) |
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Balance of Payments and
External Financing (Tables A13–
A15) |
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Flow of Funds (Table A16) |
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Medium–Term Baseline
Scenario (Table A17) |
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List of Tables Part B |
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Output (Tables B1–B2) |
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Inflation (Tables B3–B4) |
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Financial Policies
(Tables B5–B10) |
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Foreign Trade (Tables
B11–B13) |
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Current Account
Transactions (Tables B14–B17) |
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Balance of Payments and
External Financing (Tables B18–B20) |
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External Debt and Debt
Service (Tables B21–B25) |
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Medium-Term Baseline
Scenario (Table B26) |
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World Economic Outlook
and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook,
Selected Topics |
|
Chapter 1 Boxes |
Data
Data |
1.1 |
Who Is Harmed by the
Surge in Food Prices? |
Data
Data |
1.2 |
Macroeconomic
Implications of Recent Financial Market Turmoil:
Patterns from Previous Episodes |
|
1.3 |
Multilateral Consultation
on Global Imbalances |
Data
Data |
1.4 |
What Is Global Liquidity? |
Data |
1.5 |
Refinery Bottlenecks |
Data |
1.6 |
Making the Most of
Biofuels |
|
1.7 |
The Discounting Debate |
|
1.8 |
Taxes Versus Quantities
Under Undertainty (Weitzman, 1974) |
|
1.9 |
Experience with Emissions
Trading in the European Union |
|
Chapter 2 Boxes |
Data
Data |
2.1 |
What Risks Do Housing
Markets Pose for Global Growth? |
Data |
2.2 |
Labor Market Reforms in
the Euro Area and the Wage–Unemployment Trade–Off |
Data |
2.3 |
Managing the
Macroeconomic Consequences of Large and Volatile Aid
Flows |
|
|
Chapter 3 Boxes |
Data
Data |
3.1 |
Can Capital Controls
Work? |
|
Chapter 4 Boxes |
|
4.1 |
Measuring Inequality:
Conceptual, Methodological, and Measurement Issues |
Data |
4.2 |
What Do Country Studies
of the Impact of Globalization on Inequality Tell Us?
Examples from Mexico, China, and India |
|
Chapter 5 Boxes |
|
5.1 |
Major Economies and
Fluctuations in Global Growth |
Data |
5.2 |
Improved Macroeconomic
Performance—Good Luck or Good Policies? |
Data |
5.3 |
New Business Cycle
Indices for Latin America: A Historical Reconstruction |
|
Appendix Boxes |
A.1 |
Economic Policy
Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected
Economies |
|
Tables |
1.1 |
Overview of the World
Economic Outlook Projections |
1.2 |
Global Oil Demand by
Region |
2.1 |
Advanced Economies: Real
GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment |
2.2 |
Advanced Economies:
Current Account Positions |
2.3 |
Selected Asian Countries:
Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
2.4 |
Selected Western
Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance |
2.5 |
Emerging Europe: Real
GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
2.6 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance |
2.7 |
Selected African
Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current
Account Balance |
2.8 |
Selected Middle Eastern
Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current
Account Balance |
3.1 |
Episodes of Large Net
Private Capital Inflows—Summary Statistics |
3.2 |
Post–Inflow GDP Growth
Regressions |
3.3 |
Real Exchange Rate
Regressions |
3.4 |
List of Net Private
Capital Inflow Episodes |
4.1 |
Determinants of the Gini
Coefficient, Full Sample |
4.2 |
Estimation of the
Benchmark Model Using Quintiles' Income Shares, Full
Sample |
4.3 |
Determinants of the Gini
Coefficient, Regional Heterogeneity |
5.1 |
Cross–Sectional
Regressions |
5.2 |
Panel and Probit
Regressions |
|
Chapter 1 Figures
|
Data |
1.1 |
Global Indicators |
Data |
1.2 |
Global Inflation |
Data |
1.3 |
Developments in Mature
Credit Markets |
Data |
1.4 |
Mature Financial Market
Indicators |
Data |
1.5 |
Emerging Market Financial
Conditions |
Data |
1.6 |
External Developments in
Selected Advanced Economies |
Data |
1.7 |
External Developments in
Emerging Market and Developing Countries |
Data |
1.8 |
Global Outlook |
Data |
1.9 |
Current and
Forward-Looking Indicators |
Data |
1.10 |
Risks to the Global
Outlook |
Data |
1.11 |
Measures of the Output
Gap and Capacity Pressures |
Data |
1.12 |
Productivity and Labor
Cost Developments in Selected Advanced Economies |
Data |
1.13 |
Current Account Balances
and Net Foreign Assets |
Data |
1.14 |
Simulated Effect of a
Financial Disturbance on the Global Economy |
Data |
1.15 |
Private Capital Flows to
Emerging Markets |
Data |
1.16 |
Current and Capital
Account Flows to Selected Emerging Market and Developing
Countries |
Data |
1.17 |
Perspectives on Global
Growth |
Data |
1.18 |
Commodity Price Indices |
Data |
1.19 |
Crude Oil and Gasoline
Prices |
Data |
1.20 |
Developments in Oil
Consumption and Production |
Data |
1.21 |
Inventories and OPEC
Production |
Data |
1.22 |
Oil Futures Prices, and
Selected Energy and Metal Prices |
Data |
1.23 |
Sources of Demand and
Prices of Selected Fuel–Related Food Items |
Data |
1.24 |
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
by Region |
Data |
1.25 |
Actual and Projected
Fuel–Related Carbon Emissions Under “Business-as-Usual” |
Data |
1.26 |
Time Profile of Aggregate
Damages from Climate Change |
Data |
1.27 |
Mean per Capita GDP
losses at Different Levels of Warming |
Data |
1.28 |
Greenhouse Gas Emission
Paths Consistent with Alternative Concentration Targets |
Data |
1.29 |
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Kyoto Targets, and Predicted Emissions |
|
Chapter 2 Figures |
Data |
2.1 |
United States: Indicators
of Investment |
Data |
2.2 |
Western Europe: What Is
the Outlook for Inflation? |
Data |
2.3 |
Japan: Deflation Still
Not Decisively Beaten |
Data |
2.4 |
Emerging Asia: Managing
Strong Foreign Exchange Inflows |
Data |
2.5 |
Latin America: Capital
Inflows Are Complicating Macroeconomic Management |
Data |
2.6 |
Emerging Europe: Rapid
Credit Growth Is Fueling Domestic Demand |
Data |
2.7 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS): Dealing with Capital Inflows |
Data |
2.8 |
Sub-Saharan Africa:
Benefiting from Globalization |
Data |
2.9 |
Middle East: How Are Oil
Revenues Used? |
|
Chapter 3 Figures |
Data |
3.1 |
Net Private Capital
Inflows to Emerging Markets |
Data |
3.2 |
Gross Private Flows,
Current Account Balance, and Reserve Accumulation |
Data |
3.3 |
Current Account Balance,
Private Capital Inflows, and Reserve Accumulation by
Region |
Data |
3.4 |
Net FDI and Non–FDI
Inflows |
Data |
3.5 |
Characteristics of
Episodes of Large Net Private Capital Inflows |
Data |
3.6 |
Exchange Market Pressure
Index |
Data |
3.7 |
Evolution of Policy
Indicators |
Data |
3.8 |
Policy Indicators in the
Episodes of Large Net Private Capital Inflows |
Data |
3.9 |
Selected Macroeconomic
Variables: Averages During, Before, and After Episodes
of Large Net Private Capital Inflows |
Data |
3.10 |
Post-Inflow GDP Growth,
Selected Macroeconomic Variables, and Policy Indicators |
Data |
3.11 |
Real Effective Exchange
Rate Appreciation and Policy Responses When Inflation
Accelerates |
Data |
3.12 |
Regional Dimension |
Data |
3.13 |
Resistance to Exchange
Market Pressures and Duration of Capital Inflow Episodes |
Data |
3.14 |
Fiscal Policy and Balance
of Payments Pressures |
Data |
3.15 |
Mexico: Identification of
Large Net Private Capital Inflow Episodes |
|
Chapter 4 Figures |
Data |
4.1 |
Trade Globalization |
Data |
4.2 |
Financial Globalization |
Data |
4.3 |
Cross–Country Trends in
Inequality |
Data |
4.4 |
Income Shares by Quintile |
Data |
4.5 |
Per Capita Income by
Quintile |
Data |
4.6 |
Per Capita Income by
Quintile in Selected Countries |
Data |
4.7 |
Inequality Versus
Globalization: Selected Countries |
Data |
4.8 |
Information and
Communications Technology (ICT) Capital, Private Credit,
Education, and Sectoral Employment Shares |
Data |
4.9 |
Explaining Gini
Coefficient Changes |
Data |
4.10 |
Decomposition of
Globalization Effects on Inequality |
Data |
4.11 |
Inequality Versus Exports
in Agriculture |
Data |
4.12 |
Foreign Direct Investment
Stock by Sector |
Data |
4.13 |
Inequality and
Technology, 1981–2003 |
Data |
4.14 |
Explaining the Change in
Income Share of Top and Bottom Quintiles |
Data |
4.15 |
Inequality, Import Share
from Developing Countries, Inward Debt, and Outward
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), 1981–2003 |
|
Chapter 5 Figures |
Data |
5.1 |
World Growth Has Been
Strong and Stable |
Data |
5.2 |
Expansions in Historical
Perspective |
Data |
5.3 |
Recessions in Historical
Perspective |
Data |
5.4 |
Volatility of Growth in
the Main World Regions |
Data |
5.5 |
Decomposition of Changes
in World Output Volatility by Region |
Data |
5.6 |
Decomposition of Changes
to World Output Volatility by Expenditure Component |
Data |
5.7 |
Decomposition of Change
in U.S. Output Volatility |
Data |
5.8 |
Volatility Patterns in
Rapidly Growing Economies |
Data |
5.9 |
Some Determinants of
Differences in Business-Cycle Characteristics |
Data |
5.10 |
Contribution to Outcome
Differences |