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Contents
| 89 kb | Assumptions and Conventions | ||
| Preface | |||
| Foreword | |||
| Executive Summary | |||
| Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policy Issues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Text | Boxes | Charts | |||
| Global Economic Environment | |||
| Outlook and Short-Term Risks | |||
| Unwinding Global Imbalances | |||
| Policy Challenges | |||
| Appendix 1.1. Recent Developments in Commodity Markets | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives | |||
| Full Text |Boxes | Charts | |||
| United States and Canada: Inflationary Pressures Are Beginning to Rise | |||
| Western Europe: Structural Reforms Remain the Key to Stronger Growth | |||
| Japan: Monetary Policy Adjusts to the End of Deflation | |||
| Emerging Asia: China's Growth Spurt Benefits the Region but Carries Risks | |||
| Latin America: Continuing to Build Resilience | |||
| Emerging Europe: Managing Risks From Heavy Reliance on Foreign Savings | |||
Commonwealth of Independent States: Managing Large Foreign Currency Inflows (html text format) |
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| Africa: Strong Growth Continues Despite High Oil Prices | |||
| Middle East: Living with Booming Oil Exports | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 3. Asia Rising: Patterns of Economic Development and Growth | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video Briefing/Sound bites | Boxes | Charts | |||
| Asia's Economic Success | |||
| Perspiration or Inspiration? | |||
| Sectoral Effects: Cross-Sector Shifts or Within-Sector Growth? | |||
| Policy Determinants of Productivity Growth | |||
| Conclusions | |||
| Appendix 3.1 Asia Rising: Methods and Additional Results | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 4. How Do Financial Systems Affect Economic Cycles? | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video Briefing/Sound bites | Boxes | Charts | |||
| How Have Financial Systems Changed? | |||
| How Do Differences in Financial Systems Affect the Behavior of Households Firms, and Cross-Border Capital Flows? | |||
| Conclusions | |||
| Appendix 4.1 Building the Financial Index | |||
| Appendix 4.2 Econometric Methodology | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 5. The Boom in NonFuel Commodity Prices: Can It Last? | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video Briefing/Sound bites | Boxes | Charts | |||
| Long-Term Trends in Commodity Prices and Volatility | |||
| Assessment of Recent Developments | |||
| Role of Emerging Markets | |||
| Will the Recent Run-Up in Metals Prices Be Sustained? | |||
| Outlook for Food and Other Agricultural Commodities | |||
| Conclusions | |||
| Appendix 5.1 Model of Aluminum and Copper Markets | |||
| Appendix 5.2 Modeling the Relationship Between Speculation and Commodity Prices | |||
| References | |||
| Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, August 2006 | |||
| Statistical Appendix | |||
| Assumptions | |||
| What's New | |||
| Data and Conventions | |||
| Classification of Countries | |||
| General Features and Composition of Countries in the World Economic Outlook | |||
| Classification | |||
| List of Tables | |||
| Output (Tables 16) | |||
| Inflation (Tables 711) | |||
| Financial Policies (Tables 1219) | |||
| Foreign Trade (Tables 2024) | |||
| Current Account Transactions (Tables 2531) | |||
| Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 3236) | |||
| External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 3742) | |||
| Flow of Funds (Table 43) | |||
| Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 4445) | |||
| World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics | |||
| Chapter 1 Boxes | |||
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
1.1 | Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries: a Long-Term Perspective |
| Chart | Data | 1.2 | How emerging Market Countries May Be Affected By External Shocks |
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
1.3 | How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? |
| 1.4 | International and National Oil Companies in a Changing Oil Sector Environment | ||
| Chapter 2 Boxes | |||
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
2.1 | Improved Emerging Market Fiscal Performance: Cyclical or Structural? |
| Chart | Data | 2.2 | Commodity Price Shocks, Growth, and Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Chapter 3 Boxes | |||
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
3.1 | Japan's Potential Output and Productivity Growth |
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
3.2 | The Evolution and Impact of Corporate Governance Quality in Asia |
| Chapter 4 Boxes | |||
| 4.1 | Financial Leverage and Debt Deflation | ||
| Chapter 5 Boxes | |||
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
5.1 | Has Speculation Contributed to Higher Commodity Prices? |
| 5.2 | Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Commodity Prices | ||
| Appendix Boxes | |||
| A1. | Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies | ||
| Tables | |||
| 1.1 | Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections | ||
| 1.2 | Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows | ||
| 1.3 | Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt | ||
| 1.4 | Global Oil Demand by Region | ||
| 1.5 | Selected Domestic Fuel Price Changes, January 2005June 2006 | ||
| 1.6 | Nonenergy Commodity Prices | ||
| 2.1 | Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment | ||
| 2.2 | Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions | ||
| 2.3 | Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.4 | Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.5 | Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.6 | Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.7 | Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.8 | Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 3.1 | Sectoral Shares in Value Added and Employment | ||
| 3.2 | Determinants of Productivity Growth | ||
| 4.1 | Dependent Variable: Private Consumption | ||
| 4.2 | Dependent Variable: _1,i,t | ||
| 4.3 | Dependent Variable: Bilateral Portfolio Investment | ||
| 5.1 | Dependence on Exports of Selected Non-Fuel Commodities | ||
| 5.2 | Decomposition of IMF Non-Fuel Commodities Price Index, 200206 | ||
| 5.3 | Consumption of Industrial Metals and Oil | ||
| 5.4 | Consumption of Selected Agricultural Commodities | ||
| 5.5 | Cash Costs of Production for Selected Base Metals | ||
| 5.6 | Estimated Elasticities of Demand for Selected Base Metals | ||
| 5.7 | Estimates of Metal Demand | ||
| 5.8 | Estimates of Price Equations | ||
| 5.9 | Equation for Industrial Production | ||
| 5.10 | Consumption of Metals | ||
| 5.11 | Summary of the Results from Rolling Regressions | ||
| Chapter 1 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 1.1 | Global Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.2 | Current and Forward-Looking Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | Measures of the Output Gap and Labor Market Pressures |
| Chart | Data | 1.4 | Global Inflation |
| Chart | Data | 1.5 | Developments in Mature Financial Markets |
| Chart | Data | 1.6 | Mature Financial Market Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.7 | External Developments in Major Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 1.8 | External Developments in Emerging Market Countries |
| Chart | Data | 1.9 | Emerging Market Financial Conditions |
| Chart | Data | 1.10 | Global Outlook |
| Chart | Data | 1.11 | Prospects for World GDP Growth |
| Chart | Data | 1.12 | Productivity Developments in Selected Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 1.13 | Impact of Commodity Price Movements on Trade Balances in Emerging Markets and Developing Countries |
| Chart | Data | 1.14 | Current Account Balances and Net Foreign Assets |
| Chart | Data | 1.15 | Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices, Price Volatility, and Consumption-Production Changes |
| Chart | Data | 1.16 | OPEC Production, OPEC Spare Capacity, and OECD Inventories |
| Chart | Data | 1.17 | Stock Market Valuations and Real Investment in Oil and Non-Oil Sectors |
| Chart | Data | 1.18 | Nonenergy Commodities |
| Chart | Data | 1.19 | Semiconductor Market |
| Chapter 2 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 2.1 | United States: Are Inflationary Pressures Building |
| Chart | Data | 2.2 | Western Europe: Boosting Productivity is the Key to Stronger Growth |
| Chart | Data | 2.3 | Japan: Balancing Inflation and Deflation Risks |
| Chart | Data | 2.4 | Emerging Asia: The Regional Impact of China's Rapid Growth |
| Chart | Data | 2.5 | Latin America: Progress Toward Fiscal Sustainability |
| Chart | Data | 2.6 | Latin America: Mixed Performance in the Hydrocarbons Sector |
| Chart | Data | 2.7 | Emerging Europe: Rapid Growth and Its Risks |
| Chart | Data | 2.8 | Commonwealth of Independent States: Strong Foreign Currency Inflows Create Macroeconomic Challenges |
| Chart | Data | 2.9 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Oil-Importing Countries Record Strong Growth Despite High Oil Prices |
| Chart | Data | 2.10 | Middle East: Spending Booming Oil Revenue Wisely |
| Chapter 3 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | Output per Capita |
| Chart | Data | 3.2 | Selected Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 3.3 | Growth Decompositions |
| Chart | Data | 3.4 | Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) Investment and Labor Productivity Growth, 19892005 |
| Chart | Data | 3.5 | Sectoral Shares of Value Added and Employment for Asia |
| Chart | Data | 3.6 | Employment and Labor Productivity in the Agricultural Sector Over Time |
| Chart | Data | 3.7 | Productivity Growth by Sector |
| Chart | Data | 3.8 | Sectoral Productivity Growth Since Takeoff |
| Chart | Data | 3.9 | 9Contributions to Average Labor Productivity Growth Differential with the United States |
| Chart | Data | 3.10 | Skill Intensive Manufacturing Sectors: Employment and Value Added Shares |
| Chart | Data | 3.11 | Contributions to Average Manufacturing Productivity Growth Differential with the United States |
| Chart | Data | 3.12 | Determinants of Productivity Growth, 19702004 |
| Chart | Data | 3.13 | Determinants of Labor Shifts from Agriculture |
| Chart | Data | 3.14 | Partial Correlations Between Labor Shift From Agriculture and Its Determinants |
| Chapter 4 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 4.1 | Stock and Bond Market Capitalization and Nonfinancial Sector Liabilities,19952004 |
| Chart | Data | 4.2 | Traditional Banking: Index for Selected Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.3 | New Financial Intermediation: Index for Selected Advanced Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.4 | Financial Markets: Index for Selected Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.5 | Financial Index Scores for Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.6 | Features of Mortgage Markets |
| Chart | Data | 4.7 | Total Household Liabilities |
| Chart | Data | 4.8 | Consumption-Income Correlations and the Financial Index, 19852005 |
| Chart | Data | 4.9 | Private Consumption: Response to Equity Busts, 19852005 |
| Chart | Data | 4.10 | Private Consumption and Residential Investment: A Response to Housing Busts, 19702005 |
| Chart | Data | 4.11 | Depth of Equity and Housing Busts and the Financial Index, 19852005 |
| Chart | Data | 4.12 | Investment and Financing by the Corporate Sector |
| Chart | Data | 4.13 | The Financial Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment |
| 4.14 | The Financial Index | ||
| Chart | Data | 4.15 | The Financial Index: Subindices for Selected Advanced Economies |
| 4.16 | Clustering Results | ||
| Chapter 5 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 5.1 | Dependence on Exports of Non-Fuel Commodities and Geographical Concentration of Production |
| Chart | Data | 5.2 | Long-Term Price Trends |
| Chart | Data | 5.3 | Volatility in Nonfuel Commodities Prices |
| Chart | Data | 5.4 | Commodity Prices over the Business Cycle |
| Chart | Data | 5.5 | Recent Developments in Commodity Prices |
| Chart | Data | 5.6 | Perspective on the Recent Price Developments, 19572006 |
| Chart | Data | 5.7 | Consumption of Base Metals and Steel, 19602005 |
| Chart | Data | 5.8 | The Importance of Industry at Various Stages of Economic Development, 19652004 |
| Chart | Data | 5.9 | Base Metal Prices on Futures Markets |
| Chart | Data | 5.10 | Model-Based Forecasts of Aluminum and Copper Prices |
| Chart | Data | 5.11 | Consumption of Base Metals and Industrial Production, 19602005 |
| Chart | Data | 5.12 | Crude Oil: Rolling Estimates of the Model's Long-Run Parameters |
| Chart | Data | 5.13 | Crude Oil: Rolling Estimates of the Model's Short-Run Parameters |
