Moldova & IMF IMF Activities Publications Press Releases


                                                                                                 Russian - Executive Summary (PDF)

 

    Fiscal Monitor

     Public Expenditure Reform: Making Difficult Choices
       April  2014

Fiscal risks are abating somewhat but remain elevated. In advanced economies, recent policy moves have broadly stabilized public debt ratios, but medium-term prospects are still uncertain and debt remains at historic highs. Fiscal vulnerabilities are rising in both emerging market economies and low-income countries, although in most cases from relatively moderate levels. Across country groups, fiscal policy should aim at rebuilding policy space while strengthening the recovery and long-term growth prospects.

       Download Full Text PDF


Contents

Front Matter

Preface
Executive Summary

Chapter 1. Recent Fiscal Developments and the Short-Term Outlook

Text (Download PDF)
Advanced Economies: A Slowdown, Not a Pause, in Fiscal Consolidation
Emerging Market Economies: Rising Vulnerabilities—A Call for Policy Action
Low-Income Countries: Resilient, Yet Fiscally Vulnerable
References
Boxes
1.1 Moment of Truth: Unfunded Pension Liabilities and Public Debt Statistics
1.2 Non-resident Holdings of Emerging Market Economy Debt
1.3 Fiscal Challenges in the Pacific Island Countries
Figures
1.1 Revisions to Primary Balance and Debt-to-GDP Forecasts Since the Last Fiscal Monitor
1.2 Fiscal Trends in Advanced Economies
1.3 Fiscal Trends in Emerging Market Economies
1.4 Fiscal Trends in Low-Income Countries
Tables
1.1 Fiscal Balances, 2008–15
1.2 General Government Debt, 2008–15
1.3 Assessment of Underlying Fiscal Vulnerabilities over Time
1.4 Assessment of Underlying Fiscal Vulnerabilities, April 2014
1.5 Selected Advanced Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2014-16
1.6 Selected Advanced Economies: Financial Sector Support
1.7 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2014–15

Chapter 2. Public Expenditure Reform: Making Difficult Choices

Text (Download PDF)
Past and Expected Spending Trends
Options for Spending Reforms
Supportive Institutional Arrangements
Appendix 2.1 Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy
References
Boxes
2.1 The Future of the State: Testing the Wagner and Baumol Hypotheses
2.2 Structural Measures and Social Dialogue
2.3 Health System Inefficiencies
2.4 Fiscal Consolidations with Progressive Measures
 
Figures
2.1 General Government Expenditure
2.2 Change in Primary Expenditure Items, 2009–13
2.3 Key Facts About the General Government Wage Bill, Employment, and Average Wage, 2010
2.4 Comparison of Recent (2009–12) and Historical (1979–2009) Wage Bill Condolidation Episodes
2.5 Cumulative Change in the Public Wage Bill Ten Years after the First Year of Measures
2.6 Reform Options to Stablize Pension Spending in Advanced Economies, 2013–30
2.7 Health Expenditure by Country Group
2.8 Decomposition of Changes in Education Spending
2.9 Redistributive Impact of Fiscal Policy in Advanced Economies, Mid-2000s
2.10 Tax Revenue and Social Spending, 2011
2.11 Means-tested and Non-means-tested Family Benefits, 2010
2.12 Social Assistance Coverage and Targeting in Developing Economies, Mid-2000s
2.13 General Government Investment
2.14 Public Capital Stock Ratio
2.15 Public Investment and Capital Stock—Three Quality Scenarios
2.16 Indicators of Expenditure Decentralization
2.17 Subnational Government Expenditure by Function
2.18 Vertical Fiscal Imbalance and Fiscal Performance, 2008
2.19 Compliance with Fiscal Rules: 1985–2012
2.20 Compliance with Expenditure Rules and the Macroeconomic Environment
2.21 Presence of Expenditure Rules and Adjusted Primary Balance
2.22 Fiscal Impulse
2.23 Expenditure Rules and Spending Composition
2.24 Expenditure Rules, Efficiency, and Government Size
 

Methodological and Statistical Appendix

Text (Download PDF)
Data and Conventions
Fiscal Policy Assumptions
Table A. Advanced Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data
Table B. Emerging Market Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data
Table C. Low-Income Countries: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data
Statistical Tables
1. Advanced Economies: General Government Overall Balance and Primary Balance
2. Advanced Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Balance and Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance
3. Advanced Economies: General Government Revenue and Expenditure
4. Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt and Net Debt
5. Emerging Market Economies: General Government Overall Balance and Primary Balance
6. Emerging Market Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Balance and Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance
7. Emerging Market Economies: General Government Revenue and Expenditure
8. Emerging Market Economies: General Government Gross Debt and Net Debt
9. Low-Income Countries: General Government Overall Balance and Primary Balance
10. Low-Income Countries: General Government Revenue and Expenditure
11. Low-Income Countries: General Government Gross Debt and Net Debt
12a. Advanced Economies: Structural Fiscal Indicators
12b. Emerging Market Economies: Structural Fiscal Indicators
13a. Advanced Economies: Illustrative Adjustment Needs Based on Long-Term Debt Targets
13b. Advanced Economies: Illustrative Adjustment Needs Based on Medium-Term Structural Balance Targets
14. Emerging Market Economies: Illustrative Adjustment Needs Based on Long-Term Debt Targets

Back Matter

Text (Download PDF)
IMF Executive Board Discussion Summary
Acronyms
Country Abbreviations
Glossary

 


 Source