Limba romana

MOLDOVA WILL HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN LENDERS' 
GAME RULES AND DEFAULT

Economic Commentary

Chisinau-29.05.2001/11:41:08/(BASA-economic) Moldova's foreign debt
service in 2002 will reach a critical 178 million dollars, an
amount equal to half of the national revenue, independent experts
and officials agree.

The problem with the foreign debt is one of the most difficult
which the one-and-a-half-month-old Moldovan government has to
resolve in the near future, with little room for options and
limited financial possibilities. This is what international
observers see.

Moldova has not much choice. It either accepts the game rules of
the lenders and obtains a restructuring of debts, or announces
default. And the last, but least likely choice - paying debts,
which means tightening the belt to honour the payments that can
be no longer postponed.

Debt freezing will bring Moldova into a financial isolation.

John Olding-Smee, director of the Europe II Department of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), said during a live broadcast
conference Vienna-Washington for post-Soviet journalists last week
that "the situation will get serious even if the Moldovan
government tries to discuss the debt freeze issue.

In this case, Moldova is declared in default and receives no more
loans or investments. "It is hard to regain the reputation if the
commitments are broken," he stressed.

The creditors don't even admit that Moldova will fail to recover
its 75-million-dollar eurobonds, which were placed on the
international market through Merrill Lynch and expire in 2002. The
state securities market is very sensitive, therefore the Chisinau
government should be starting negotiations with the creditors in
order to obtain rebates or be buying back the eurobonds using the
reserves of foreign currencies, said IMF expert Mohammad
Shadman-Valavi.

Even under this aspect the possibilities of Moldova are limited.
Despite the ambitious policy of the central bank, the consequences
of the 1998 Russian financial crisis are still felt in Moldova: the
state reserves of foreign currencies reduced from 366 million to
144 million dollars. At the end of March 2001, the reserves counted
230 million dollars.

The IMF and World Bank have repeatedly said that they were
available to support the effort of Moldovan authorities to
restructure the foreign debt, both at the Paris Club level and
bilateral or multilateral agreements.

"We are ready to discuss a debt restructuring plan with the
Moldovan government," Olding-Smee said, adding that continued
reforms are the only condition for the money. He also mentioned
the government plans of public spending increases in a situation
when the debts are large and the incomes are small.

The IMF official said the confused external message of Moldovan
authorities demonstrate that there is no common stance concerning
the future course of the country. Unless the differences are
resolved, he emphasized, the Fund would not continue its
assistance.

Moldova missed in April a 142-million-dollar tranche following an
assessment mission from the Fund.

The next mission would visit Chisinau not earlier than July, if, of
course, the government honors the commitments assumed in the
December 2000 memorandum.

CHISINAUL VA TREBUI SA ACCEPTE REGULILE DE JOC IMPUSE DE CREDITORII EXTERNI PENTRU A NU INTRA IN INCAPACITATE DE PLATA

Comentariul economic al Agentiei BASA-press

Chisinau-29.05.2001/11:41:08/(BASA-economic) Plata pentru serviciul datoriei externe a R.Moldova va atinge in anul 2002 nivelul critic de 178 milioane USD, ceea ce reprezinta 50% din incasarile la bugetul de stat.

Problema datoriei externe este una dintre cele mai dificile pe care urmeaza sa o rezolve deja in timpul apropiat Guvernul moldovean, posibilitatile de manevrare ale caruia sunt limitate, afirma expertii straini.

Moldova nu prea are ce alege. Sau accepta regulile de joc ale creditorilor externi si obtine restructurarea unor datorii pentru a evita intrarea in incapacitate de plata, sau nu le accepta si va fi nevoita sa-si stranga cureaua pentru a achita platile care in nici un caz nu pot fi amanate.

Exista si varianta in care guvernul ar putea anunta inghetarea datoriilor. O astfel de evolutie ar duce insa R.Moldova in pragul unei izolari financiare externe.

Se va crea o situatie destul de serioasa, chiar si in cazul in care guvernul moldovean doar va incerca sa discute problema inghetarii datoriilor externe, a declarat la sfarsitul saptamanii trecute John Olding-Smee, directorul Departamentului II European al FMI, intr-o conferinta de presa video Vienna-Washington, organizata pentru jurnalistii din sase tari postsovietice.

In cazul acesta, potrivit inaltului demnitar al FMI, R.Moldova risca sa fie declarata in incapacitate de plata si sa nu mai obtina noi investitii. Iar tarile care nu-si onoreaza angajamentele fata de creditori isi recapata cu mare greutate reputatia.

Creditorii externi nici nu admit situatia in care R.Moldova nu va rascumpara eurobondurile in valoare de 75 milioane USD, plasate pe piata externa prin intermediul companiei Merrill Lynch, termenul de scadenta al carora expira in 2002. Piata obligatiunilor de stat este foarte sensibila, de aceea Moldova ar trebui sa inceapa negocieri cu creditorii pentru a obtine rabaturi sau sa rascumpere eurobondurile din contul rezervelor valutare, afirma Mahammad Shadman-Valavi, expert al FMI.

Insa si in acest aspect posibilitatile Moldovei sunt limitate. Chiar daca Banca Nationala promoveaza o politica destul de ambitioasa, consecintele crizei financiare ruse din 1998, cand rezervele valutare au scazut de la 366 mln USD pana la 144 mln USD, se mai resimt. La sfarsitul lunii martie BNM raporta rezerve in suma de 230 mln USD.

FMI si Banca Mondiala au anuntat in repetate randuri ca sunt disponibile sa sustina efortul oficialitatilor moldovene de a restructura datoriile externe atat la nivelul clubului de la Paris, cat si a acordurilor bilaterale si multilaterale.

Suntem gata sa discutam cu Guvernul moldovean programul de restructurare a datoriilor externe, a declarat John Olding-Smee.

Singura conditie este ca guvernul format de comunisti sa continue reformele. Acesta, insa, la fel ca si deputatii comunisti, lanseaza declaratii privind revizuirea unor proiecte de privatizare, aproba hotarari ce presupun majorarea cheltuielilor bugetare in conditiile in care Moldova are datorii mari si venituri mici.

Seful Departamentului Europa II al FMI a declarat ca mesajul extern confuz al autoritatilor moldovene denota ca in Guvern continua dezbaterile, iar pana ele nu vor fi incheiate Fondul nu va adopta hotararea privind "reluarea creditarii".

In aprilie a.c., misiunea FMI la Chisinau nu s-a soldat, cum era de asteptat, cu alocarea unei noi transe trimestriale din creditul de 142 milioane USD.

Urmatoare misiune a FMI ar putea sa vina la Chisinau nu mai devreme de luna iulie, daca, desigur, guvernul va indeplini clauzele Memorandumului semnat la 1 decembrie 2000.