Limba romana

CHISINAU CHALLENGES INTERNATIONAL LENDERS

Basa-Press Economic Commentary

Chisinau-16.06.2001/10:03:44/(BASA-economic) Moldovan Premier Vasile
Tarlev made this week a surprising statement - he said the
government has honoured all clauses of the December 2000 memorandum
and a new mission from the International Monetary Fund could visit
Moldova at the end of June.

The news about an eventual end-June visit of IMF experts seems to be a
piece of news even for those who should arrive in Chisinau and who
expressed reservations in May towards the governing program of the
communist authorities by saying that the Moldova-IMF relations have
been crossing a critical moment.

"I am not worried at all about the Moldova-IMF relations or other
financial bodies," the premier confessed.

His office announced that the IMF Resident Representative has
expressed satisfaction in a letter to the government over how the
Moldovan authorities respected their commitments.

The premier said the IMF office in Chisinau "hailed the Moldovan
government for the measures taken to eradicate corruption in the
state structures, to strengthen the fiscal discipline and to secure
the borders."

A new IMF mission is expected later in June in Chisinau to assess
the performance of the Moldovan government and decide whether to
continue financing the former Soviet state, he said, adding that the
date of the visit was unknown for the time being.

"The news" was published and republished by newspapers in Chisinau
despite the fact that no official confirmation has been obtained
so far.

Days before the premier announced the news, Moldovan President
Vladimir Voronin stated in an interview to the Russian press that
the IMF and the World Bank were to blame for the crisis in Moldova.

"Those who intend to bring Moldova to default have to think serious
who pushed it to this situation?" Voronin stated, adding that the
attitude of the Moldovan government towards the memorandum was too
meek - "even incomparable with the decisions of the Central
Committee of the Soviet Union Communist Party."

Is this a reaction to the tough statements of the IMF experts at the
end of the mission, which left the country more disappointed than
Chisinau had expected? It is clear that the conclusions were not
warmed, especially after a note of the premier that the relations
with the international lenders would be raised to a level that
Moldova never knew before.

The IMF envoys, who have got used to judge by work rather than
word, said they were not satisfied over the fulfillment of the
task book for the first quarter and later said that "the patient
(Moldova) had not obeyed the doctor (IMF)." Voronin's response was
short, but easy to understand "It was a bad doctor."

The International Monetary Fund has imposed tougher restrictions to
Moldova than the World Trade Organization, Deputy Economics Minister
Iacob Timciuc told journalists on Tuesday.

"We have to be patriots in discussions with the IMF, we have to
discuss with everybody and take into consideration all
recommendations, but our actions should be convenient for Moldova
or to talk to organisations that are more convenient to us," said
Timciuc.

The new statements betray a state of anxiety of Moldovan authorities
after the downgrading of the long-term currency rating of Moldova
from "B-" to "CCC+" by the Fitch international rating agency. The
short-term rating for loans in national currency lowered from "B" to
"C", while the long-term perspective of evaluation was lowered from
"stable" to "negative".

The recent political changes, which saw a communist-led government
come to power may cut short the promising economic reform
undertaken by the previous administration, according to Fitch.

The confused foreign message of the Chisinau authorities prompts
the alert of the International Monetary Fund and other foreign
creditors.

The incapacity to attract means from other sources could compromise
the earnings to the budget and could open up a 70-million-dollar
hole in the balance of payments in 2001 and of up to 100 million
dollars in 2002. This hole "would have to be filled by drawing down
limited foreign exchange reserves."

Fitch has also said that the structural transformations in the
Moldovan economy were on the slow pace, the foreign debt was very
high, forecasts in privatisation insignificant, while the markets
for exports are unstable, so that Moldova was compelled to
reorganise its commitments towards creditors.

Next year, Moldova will have to honour a 178-million-dollar debt,
which is half of the budgetary earnings, or even 70 percent of the
earnings in case the tax collection work fails, Premier Tarlev
admitted.

Some of the conditions contradict the program of Moldovan
Communists, while the delicate message of the West does not mean
that Moldova may count on a milder treatment.

Washington, for the time being, has not confirmed whether it is
sending a new mission.

CHISINAUL ARUNCA MANUSA CREDITORILOR EXTERNI, DUPA DECLARATIILE TARI ALE ACESTORA

Comentariul economic al Agentiei BASA-press

Chisinau-16.06.2001/10:03:44/(BASA-economic) Premierul moldovean, 
Vasile Tarlev, a facut, la mijlocul saptamanii curente, o declaratie
surprinzatoare, primul ministru a afirmat ca Guvernul respecta toate
clauzele Memorandumului intrate pe rol astfel ca deja la sfarsitul
lunii iunie la Chisinau ar putea sosi o misiune a Fondului
Monetar International.

Stirea despre o eventuala vizita a unei misiuni a FMI la sfarsitul lunii
iunie a fost, se pare, o noutate chiar si pentru acei care ar trebui sa
vina la Chisinau si care, la inceputul lunii mai, au avut mai multe
rezerve fata de programul de guvernare declarand ca relatiile
R.Moldova cu FMI trec printr-un moment critic.

"Nu-mi fac nici o grija in privinta relatiilor cu organismele
financiare internationale", s-a destainuit primul ministru.

La fel de neasteptata a fost si afirmatia precum ca reprezentanta FMI la
Chisinau a remis Guvernului o scrisoare in care s-a aratat satisfacuta
de modul in care autoritatile moldovene isi respecta angajamentele.
"Noutatea" a foste preluata de mai multe publicatiii, chiar daca
mai apoi nu a fost confirmata oficial.

Cu atat mai surprinzatoare sunt afirmatiile premierului, cu cat ele vin
la numai cateva zile dupa ce presedintele Vladimir Voronin a aruncat
manusa declarand intr-un interviu presei de la Moscova ca FMI si Banca
Mondiala ar trebui sa-si asume o parte din responsabilitatile pentru
actuala stare de lucruri din R.Moldova.

"Cei care intentioneaza sa aduca Moldova pana la incapacitate de plata
trebuie sa se gandeasca serios cine a impins-o spre aceasta?", a spus
Voronin. Si ca sa nu lase loc pentru interpretari si presupuneri, seful
statului afirma ca atitudinea fata de memorandumurile incheiate cu FMI
a fost atat de docila, cum nu a fost nici fata de hotararile CC al
PCUS pe vremurile sovietice.

Sa fie aceasta o reactie la declaratiile tari ale unor demnitari ai FMI
care dupa incheierea misiunii de la sfarsitul lunii aprilie au trantit
cu usa mai tare decat se astepta noua putere de la Chisinau?

Clar ca concluziile nu puteau sa placa, dupa ce premierul a sustinut ca
relatiile cu organismele financiare internationale in timpul guvernarii
sale vor fi ridicate la un nivel mult mai inalt decat a fost
pana acum.

Obisnuiti, insa, sa judece dupa fapte, nu dupa vorbe, emisarii straini
s-au aratat nemultumiti de modul in care a fost indeplinit caietul de
sarcini pe primul trimestru, iar mai tarziu au spus alegoric ca, chiar
daca FMI a fost un vraci pentru R.Moldova, pacientul nu l-a ascultat.
хn replica Vladimir Voronin a afirmat ca a fost, de fapt, un medic
prost.

Nu au intarziat sa vina cu critici in adresa creditorilor externi si
demnitari de la nivele inferioare ale puterii care, in particular, au
sustinut ca FMI a impus Moldovei restrictii mult mai dure decat
Organizatia Mondiala a Comertului.

Declaratiile de ultima ora tradeaza o stare de nervozitate a
autoritatilor moldovene dupa retrogradarea ratingului R.Moldova de catre
Agentia internationala de evaluare financiara Fitch. Ratingul valutar pe
termen lung a fost retrogradat de la "B-" la "CCC+", ratingul pe termen
scrut - de la "B" la "C", iar perspectiva evaluarilor de lunga durata
a fost coborata de la "stabil" la "negativ".

хn consecinta Chisinaului ii va fi cu mult mai greu sa negocieze
restructurarea datoriilor externe. Unii economisti spun chiar ca aceste
negocieri intarzie cu mult in situatia in care procedurile de
reesalonare sunt de durata, iar R.Moldova va trebui sa plateasca deja in
anul viitor pentru serviciul datoriei externe 178 milioane USD, ceea ce
reprezinta 50% din veniturile bugetare, iar in cazul in care nu se va
reusi cresterea incasarilor - chiar 70 la suta, potrivit
declaratiilor primului ministru.

Autoritatile moldovene ar trebui sa se grabeasca pentru a nu intarzia la
masa negocierilor, de aceea le enerveaza si retrogradarea ratingului, si
criticile venite de dinafara, chiar daca sunt spuse cu delicatetea
proprie occidentalilor, si faptul ca sunt nevoite sa faca compromisuri
pentru a accepta unele lucruri ce vin in contradictie cu principiile
programatice ale comunistilor.

De la Washington, insa, deocamdata nu a parvenit nici un semnal privind
data sosirii unei misiuni FMI la Chisinau.