Limba romana
CHISINAU IS THE ONE TO PERSUADE FOREIGN CREDITORS TO
RESUME FINANCING, EVEN IF CREDITORS HAVE RESERVATIONS
TOWARDS COMMUNISTS
Economic Commentary
Chisinau-21.07.2001/10:59:40/(BASA-economic) When the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would send on July 25 a new
mission to Chisinau, many analysts wondered whether the Moldovan
government has managed to persuade the Fund to resume that
financing that was halted last April.
A week ago, it could be said for sure that the arrival of the IMF
experts in Chisinau was like a chance lost from the very beginning,
even though Premier Vasile Tarlev expressed optimism and showed
himself confident that his government would pass the tests to IMF.
The premier may have an ace in his sleeves, but his government was
meanwhile suffocating without the international assistance.
At least one thing was clear at this moment: many provisions of the
memorandum have not been fulfilled, including privatisation of two
wine companies, modification to some laws and adoption of a law on
free enterprise zones, as well as the inspection of imports prior
to the delivery, fiscal administration.
President Vladimir Voronin made a shocking statement. "We've been
truly trapped. IMF and other international lenders have pushed out
country into a ditch of debts," he said in an interview with the
Moscow-based mass circulation newspaper Izvestya.
In mid-June, Finance Minister Mihai Manoli kept warning the
leadership of Moldova of "a total default." He called for more work
to find solutions to an imminent financial isolation of the country
and stressed that the government should urgently negotiate the
reschedule of the maturing debts and seek new loans from the Fund.
When it was learned on July 16 that IMF would send a mission
by the end of the month, a fire broke out in the government. Two
days later, the cabinet approved of a new law on free enterprise
zones, passed a decision concerning the inspection before delivery,
while the parliament adopted Title Five of the Fiscal Code on
fiscal administration and extended the privatisation program.
The Tarlev government actually acts just the way his predecessors
had acted: the action is taken only one hour before the deadline.
During this mess, the premier may forget that there is something
left, while the sharp eyes of the IMF experts may notice that namely
this "something" is missing.
The freequent meetings between Moldovan officials and representatives
of the international lenders indicate that Chisinau is trying to
avoid seeing IMF disappointed.
This dialogue is not an easy one, with some meetings conducted
behind closed doors.
It is obvious that the government cannot ignore the opinions of
some important figures, though these do not take part in the talks.
U.S. Ambassador to Moldova Rudolf Perina has stated recently that
the upcoming visit of the IMF mission is a very important issue that
would have major effects on Moldova's future. The U.S. diplomat said
it was very important to reach an agreement with the IMF and
persuade the Fund to resume the financing of Moldova. This will be a
signal to other international lenders and to donors, and may
determine the Paris Club to accept the reschedule of Moldova's
foreign debts.
It is symptomatic that no one ventures into making forecasts
concerning the results of the Moldova-IMF talks, which start on
July 25. Even Premier Tarlev, known for his optimism, has decided
to keep off comments.
And the end. It is Chisinau to persuade the IMF that it is ready to
continue the economic and financial policies according to the
December 2000 memorandum.
CHISINAUL ESTE ACELA CARE TREBUIE SA CONVINGA CREDITORII EXTERNI SA REIA FINANTAREA CHIAR DACA ACESTIA AU REZERVE FATA DE COMUNISTI
Comentariul economic al Agentiei BASA-press
Chisinau-21.07.2001/09:38:33/(BASA-economic) Dupa ce FMI a anuntat ca va trimite la 25 iulie o misiune la Chisinau, mai multi analisti se intreaba daca guvernul moldovean va reusi sa convinga Fondul sa reia creditarea intrerupta in aprilie anul curent.
Nu departe decat acum o saptamana se putea afirma cu certitudine ca venirea la Chisinau a expertilor FMI este ca si o sansa ratata din start, chiar daca primul ministru Vasile Tarlev a declarat optimist ca nu-si face mare griji atunci cand e vorba de examenul pe care trebuie sa-l treaca Guvernul in fata Fondului Monetar International.
Poate o fi avand premierul un as in maneca de nu-si face probleme in timp ce bugetul se sufoca fara sustinere financiara externa.
Un lucru insa era clar la acel moment, mai multe clauze ale Memorandumului nu erau indeplinite, inclusiv referitoare la punerea in vanzare a doua combinate de vinuri, operarea unor modificari in legislatie si adoptarea unor legi privind zonele economice libere, inspectia inainte de expeditie a marfurilor importate, administrarea fiscala.
Colac peste pupaza, presedintele Vladimir Voronin face o declaratie mai mul ca socanta. "Am nimerit intr-o adevarata capcana. FMI si alte organizatii financiare internationale au atras abil tara noastra in datorii fabuloase", a declarat seful statului intr-un interviu acordat ziarului moscovit "Izvestia".
Acum o saptamana era inca extrem de actual avertismentul lansat la mijlocul lunii iunie de ministrul Finantelor, Mihai Manoli. Intr-un mesaj adresat conducerii de varf a R.Moldova el avertiza despre o eventuala intrare in "incapacitate totala de plata a R.Moldova fata de creditorii externi si interni pe o perioada indelungata si o izolare financiara fara solutii" in cazul in care Chisinaul nu va obtine restructurarea datoriilor externe si nu va reusi sa convinga FMI sa acorde noi imprumuturi.
Insa dupa ce FMI a anuntat la 16 iulie ca o misiune a Fondului va veni la Chisinau la sfarsitul lunii, Guvernul sta ca pe jaratic. Deja peste doua zile Executivul a aprobat legea cu privire la zonele economice libere, o hotarare privind controlul inainte de expeditie, iar la sfarsitul saptamanii Parlamentul a adoptat Titlul V al Codului fiscal privind administrarea fiscala si a prelungit Programul de privatizare.
Guvernul Tarlev procedeaza, de fapt, la fel ca si cele precedente care doar in ceasul al doisprezecelea adoptau acte convenite cu creditorii straini.
Dar in aceasta imbulzeala langa ultimul vagon c-ar putea intampla, ca si in alte cazuri, sa fi trecut ceva cu vederea, ceva care ar putea isca nemultumirea trimisilor Fondului. Intrevederile tot mai dese din ultimul timp intre oficialitatile de la Chisinau si reprezentantii organismelor internationale arata insa ca Chisinau vrea sa evite eventualele pretentii pe care le-ar putea inainta trimisii de la Washington.
Ca acest dialog nu este dintre cele usoare o demonstreaza si faptul ca unele intrevederi se desfasoara cu usile inchise pentru ai face probabil mai discreti pe acei care discuta.
Evident ca Guvernul nu poate sa nu ia in consideratie si opiniile unor figuranti importanti, dar care nu iau parte la aceste discutii. Rudolf Perina, Ambasadorul SUA in Republica Moldova, a declarat bunaoara ca apropiata vizita a misiunii FMI este o problema de maxim interes ce vor avea implicatii majore pentru viitorul imediat al R.Moldova. Ambasadorul SUA a spus ca este foarte important sa se ajunga la o intelegere intre FMI si Guvernul de la Chisinau privind reluarea creditarii R.Moldova, pentru ca de aceasta depinde disponibilitatea altor organisme internationale de a acorda asistenta financiara, precum si o eventuala decizie favorabila a Clubului de la Paris, in vederea restructurarii datoriei externe a R.Moldova.
Simptomatic e, insa, faptul ca nimeni nu risca sa faca prognoze privind rezultatele negocierilor ce vor incepe la 25 iulie cu misiunea FMI. Chiar si premierul Tarlev care acum cateva saptamani a sustinut ca nu-si face probleme, la mijlocul saptamanii curente a fost mai rezervat cand doar si-a exprimat speranta ca discutiile cu misiunea Fondului vor fi eficiente.
In fine, Chisinaul este acela care trebuie sa convinga FMI ca este gata sa continue politicele economice si financiare stipulate in Memorandumul semnat la 1 decembrie 2000 pentru ai determina pe creditorii externi sa dea noi imprumuturi.
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