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GOVERNMENT OPTIMISTIC OF RESUMPTION OF INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, EVEN IF IMF'S DECISION WILL BE
ANNOUNCED IN TWO MONTHS

Economic Commentary

Chisinau-14.08.2001/13:30:31/(BASA-economic) The government in
Chisinau shows signs of optimism regarding resumption of the
international financial assistance, after it reached an agreement
with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission on a supplement
to the Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies, signed in late
2000 by the Braghis cabinet.

Premier Tarlev stated early this week that the resumption of
foreign financing could not be doubted, while the examination of
this problem by the IMF's board of directors was just a formality.

It seams that the cabinet of ministers is euphoric. Even the day
when the IMF experts were conducting the news conference on the
occasion of the end of mission to Moldova, the government announced
that it received the same day from the foreign investors three
offers for the participation in the building of the Giurgiulesti
terminal.

In the same euphoric manner, the Premier stated that Moldova hoped to
receive this year from the World Bank loans of 80 million dollars.
Because it has not money to pay for the budgetary deficit, the
government asked the World Bank to grant supplementary 54 million
dollars, including from the account of the assistance stipulated for
the next year.

But, many analysts think that Chisinau tries to share the fur of the
bear that was not yet hunted.

Even if the envoys of the Fund stated that the policy promoted by
the Moldovan government could be supported by the IMF, the board of
directors would adopt the final decision on this issue in October.

Until then, the government has to fulfil a series of conditions. One
of the most difficult is finishing of the privatisation process of
the power grids in north Moldova and first two wineries. The
previous attempts to privatise the power grids failed and there was
no certainty, after this failure, that the foreign companies would
run to privatise the Moldovan businesses. The case of MoldTelecom is
the same, when it is put up for auction for the third time.

Actually, the government does not hurry to make public the
supplement to the Memorandum signed with IMF last week, that
challenges speculations.

It is for sure that there were revised terms for adoption of the law
drafts stipulated in the memorandum, as well as the privatisation of
the REDs and wineries that had to be put up for auction in the first
three months of this year. However, the privatisation process will
have to end up until the meeting of the board of director of the IMF
that would examine the issue of resumption of financing for Moldova.

Until the adoption of a favorable decision by the IMF, Chisinau
could not bank on the financial assistance from the World Bank. As
regards the supplement of the crediting by 54 million dollars, it
can be rather unsure, when the talks did not start, while they last
as a rule for months.

Speaking about the new structural adjustment loan, the discussions
will begin in September.

In these conditions, the foreign financing of Moldova could be
resumed in November, while if the IMF takes a favorable decision,
Chisinau will receive means both from the IMF, World Bank and other
creditors.
 


GUVERNUL SE ARATA OPTIMIST IN CEEA CE PRIVESTE DEBLOCAREA
FINANTARII EXTERNE, CHIAR DACA DECIZIA FMI VA URMA ABIA PESTE DOUA
LUNI

Comentariul economic al Agentiei BASA-press

Chisinau-14.08.2001/12:42:43/(BASA-economic)
Guvernul de la Chisinau se arata optimist in ceea ce priveste deblocarea
finantarii externe, dupa ce a ajuns la un acord cu misiunea FMI asupra
suplimentului la Memorandumul privind Politicele Economice si
Financiare, semnat la sfarsitul anului 2000 de catre cabinetul Braghis.

Premierul Tarlev a declarat la inceputul saptamanii curente ca reluarea
finantarii externe nu poate fi pusa la indoiala, iar examinarea acestei
probleme de catre Consiliul de directori ai FMI este o pura formalitate.

Cabinetul de ministri, se pare, e cuprins de euforie. Chiar in ziua cand
expertii FMI tineau conferinta de presa cu ocazia incheierii misiunii in
Republica Moldova, Guvernul a anuntat ca a primit in aceeasi zi de la
investitori straini trei oferte pentru participarea la constructia Terminalului
de la Giurgiulesti.

Pe acelasi ton euforic, primul ministru a declarat ca Republica Moldova
spera sa primeasca in anul curent de la Banca Mondiala credite in suma
de 80 de milioane de dolari SUA. Pentru ca nu are bani sa acopere
deficitul bugetar, Guvernul a solicitat BM sa acorde suplimentar 54
milioane USD, inclusiv din contul asistentei preconizate pentru anul viitor.

Mai multi analisti, insa, sunt de parerea ca Chisinaul incearca sa
imparta blana ursului care inca nu a fost vanat.

Chiar daca trimisii Fondului au declarat ca politica promovata de catre
Guvernul moldovean poate fi sustinuta de catre FMI, consiliul de
directori va adopta decizia finala in aceasta problema nu mai devreme
de luna octombrie.

Pana atunci Guvernul trebuie sa indeplineasca o serie de conditii. Una
dintre cele mai dificile este finalizarea procesului de privatizare a
retelelor electrice de distributie din nordul R.Moldova si a primelor
doua combinate de vinificatie. Incercarile precedente de a privatiza
retelele de distributie au esuat si nu exista certitudinea ca companiile
straine vor da navala dupa aceste esecuri, legate in special de jocurile
din culise care s-au facut in jurul acestor proiecte. La fel si in cazul
MolTelecom care este licitat pentru a treia oara.

Guvernul, de fapt, nu se grabeste sa faca public suplimentul la Memorandumul
cu FMI semnat in saptamana trecuta, ceea ce lasa loc pentru speculatii.

Ceea ce se poate spune cu certitudine e ca au fost revazute unele
termene privind adoptarea proiectelor de lege stipulate de Memorandum,
precum si termenele de privatizare a RED-urilor si combinatelor de
vinificatie care urmau sa fie licitate inca in primul trimestru.
Oricum, procesul de privatizare va trebui sa fie incheiat pana la adunarea
Consiliului de directori al FMI care va examina problema reluarii finantarii R.Moldova.

Pana la adoptarea unei decizii favorabile de catre FMI, Chisinaul nu
poate conta nici pe asistenta financiara a Bancii Mondiala. Cat priveste suplimentarea
creditarii cu 54 mln USD, ea pare a fi destul de incerta in situatia in care negocierile
nici nu au inceput, iar ele de regula dureaza mai multe luni.

Cat priveste noul credit pentru ajustari structurale, discutiile vor incepe nu mai
devreme de jumatatea a doua a lunii septembrie.

In aceste conditii finantarea externa a R.Moldova ar putea fi reluata nu mai devreme
de inceputul lunii noiembrie, cand in cazul unei decizii favorabile a FMI, Chisinaul va
primi mijloace atat de la Fond, Banca Mondiala cat si de la alti creditori.