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MOLDOVAN AUTHORITIES MEET NEW IMF MISSION WITH UNPREPARED
HOMEWORK

Economic Commentary

Chisinau-02.03.2002/11:47:27/(BASA-economic) After a severe
exchange of replies on the eve of arrival of a new mission from the
International Monetary Fund, the latest statements of Moldovan
authorities and Washington's envoys on resumption of assistance for
Chisinau are part of a diplomatic language and indicate a wish
rather than a real state of things.

Premier Vasile Tarlev is convinced that "no serious fears exist as
regards the continued foreign financing for Moldova," while mission
leader Richard Haas says Moldova "stands realistic chances to
resume the ties with the IMF."

Many analysts, however, are pessimistic concerning Moldova's
chances that IMF will resume assistance, saying that the fund has
discovered the Moldovan officials with their homework unprepared.

To re-win the grace of the Fund, Moldova had to remove the state
guarantees from the Moldovan-Russian gas supply agreement, to adopt
a market-oriented civil code, and to register progress in talks
with the World Bank on SAC-III. The mission will also study whether
Moldova has obtained progress in the land administration reform
and new civil code, and whether it meets the conditions of the
Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies.

Meanwhile, analysts fear that the talks will be difficult, and an
additional reason is the fact that Chisinau had accused the
international lenders of interference Moldova's domestic affairs
and of forwarding political conditions for further financing. These
accusations were denied by the IMF.

Meanwhile, Moody's said the repeated delays for the service of the
Eurobonds make concerns that Chisinau will face difficulties in
redeeming the 75-million-dollar Eurobonds in July, placed on the
European financial market in 1997. Overall, the obligations for
this year exceed 200 million dollars, with Finance Ministry
officials complaining that the government has enough money only
until April or May.

The government must hurry in order to obtain new loans - some of
which were included in the 2002 budget - and to negotiate the debt
reschedule with the Paris Club of Creditors.

The conclusions of the visiting IMF mission will play a decisive
role. The government fulfilled none of the three conditions.

The agreement on gas supply with Russia has not been modified.
Tarlev travelled to Moscow on February 26 and discussed
possibilities to modify the agreement with his Russian counterpart
Mikhail Kasyanov. The premier returned home with a promise only
that the document will be signed under the condition that the Fund
explains its objections in a written form. It's about the
reschedule of a 800-million-dollar debt - including Transnistria's
share of debt - which have to be transformed into debts of
MoldovaGaz company, in case that this money is not reimbursed. But
the IMF strongly doubts that MoldovaGaz will be able ever to pay
back this debts, given the fact that it finished the recent years
with losses.

As for the civil code, which has passed the first reading in 1999,
Tarlev says that the examination of this document is in the final
phase. Meanwhile, the parliament's press service notes that "some
600 out of all 2,000 articles have been adopted in the second
reading."

There is also no progress in talks with the World Bank. This
institution was expected to take a decision concerning the SAC-III
agenda this week and to send a new mission to Chisinau, but the
decision was postponed for next week.

A late effect bomb may be the intention of the government to
withdraw or modify the agreement with Swiss company SGS, which is
in charge with the inspection of goods prior to delivery - another
condition of the IMF. For the time being, the reaction of the Fund
is unknown, but it will be made public immediately in case that
Chisinau cancels the three-month-old agreement.

In August-September, and then in November 2001, both the Fund and
Moldova were also optimistic, but the financing did not resume
after the lender found that the beneficiary did not respect its
obligations.
 

MISIUNEA FMI, SOSITA ACUM O SAPTAMANA LA CHISINAU, I-A GASIT PE OFICIALII MOLDOVENI CU LECTIA NEPREGATITA 

Comentariul economic al Agentiei BASA-press 

Chisinau-02.03.2002/10:44:53/(BASA-economic) Dupa schimbul de replici pe muchie de cutit din ajunul sosirii misiunii FMI la Chisinau, ultimele declaratii ale autoritatilor moldovene, cat si a trimisilor Washington-ului privind o posibila deblocare a finantarii externe a Republicii Moldova fac parte mai curand din limbajul diplomatic si denota o dorinta, decat o stare reala a lucrurilor. 

Premierul Vasile Tarlev este convins ca "nu exista temeiuri serioase pentru ca Republica Moldova sa ramana fara finantare externa si in continuare", iar Richard Haas, sustine ca Chisinaul are toate sansele de a relansa relatiile cu FMI. 

Mai multi analisti, insa, se arata pesimisti in ceea ce priveste deblocarea finantarii. Ei spun ca misiunea FMI i-a gasit pe oficialii moldoveni cu lectia nepregatita.

Pentru a intra in gratia consiliului executiv, Chisinaul urma sa elimine garantiile de stat ce se contin in acordul moldo-rus de livrare a gazelor, sa adopte un Cod civil orientat spre piata, sa obtina progrese in negocierile cu Banca Mondiala privind SAC-III, precum si sa respecte indicatorii macroeconomici fixati in Memorandumul privind Politicele Economice si Financiare. 

Miza este mare. Chisinaul are de platit in anul curent pentru serviciul datoriei externe peste 200 milioane de dolari, 56 la suta dintre care in prima jumatate de an. Apogeul platilor va fi atins in luna iunie, cand urmeaza sa fie achitate 75 mln USD. In plus, oficiali de la Ministerul Finantelor au declarat ca Republica Moldova are mijloace pentru acoperirea datoriei externe doar pana in luna aprilie-mai.

Guvernul trebuie sa se grabeasca pentru, pe de o parte, a obtine noi imprumuturi, unele dintre care au fost luate in calcul la elaborarea bugetului pe anul 2002, si, pe de alta parte, pentru a ajunge la sedinta Clubului de la Paris, ce va avea loc in luna aprilie, pentru a putea solicita restructurarea datoriei externe.

Concluziile la care va ajunge misiunea FMI, aflata in prezent la Chisinau, vor fi decisive. Nici una, insa, din cele trei conditii nu a fost dusa "pana la capat".

Acordul privind livrarea gazelor nu a fost modificat. Vasile Tarlev a plecat urgent la 26 februarie la Moscova, unde a discutat cu omologul sau rus Mihail Kasianov si chestiunea cu privire la modificarea acordului. Primul ministru a revenit insa acasa doar cu promisiunea ca documentul va fi semnat doar dupa ce Fondul va prezenta in scris talmacirile la unele articole ale acordului la care are obiectii. Este vorba de reesalonarea unor datorii in suma de 800 mln USD, inclusiv ale regiunii transnistrene, care potrivit acordului vor fi transformate in datorii ale companiei "MoldovaGaz" in cazul in care nu vor fi rambursate. FMI insa pune la mare indoiala faptul ca "MoldovaGaz" va putea intoarce candva aceste datorii in conditiile in care a terminat ultimii ani cu pierderi. 

In ceea ce priveste adoptarea Codului civil, votat in prima lectura inca in 1999, Vasile Tarlev spune ca examinarea lui a intrat in faza finala. Serviciul de presa al Parlamentului comunica, insa, ca "din cele peste doua mii de articole ale Codului civil au fost adoptate in lectura a doua circa 600".

Nu au fost mari progrese nici in negocierile cu Banca Mondiala. In saptamana curenta BM urma sa ia o decizie privind agenda negocierilor SAC-III si trimiterea unei misiuni la Chisinau, dar a amanat examinarea acestei chestiuni pe saptamana urmatoare. 

O bomba cu efect intarziat ar putea fi intentia Guvernului de a rezilia sau modifica contractul cu compania elvetiana SGS, abilitata cu efectuarea inspectiei inainte de expeditie, care a fost introdusa la insistenta Fondului. Deocamdata nu se stie care este reactia acestuia, insa ea nu va intarzia sa vina in caz daca Chisinaul va anula contractul la numai trei luni dupa ce a introdus inspectia. 

In august-septembrie, iar apoi in noiembrie 2001, cand la Chisinau s-a aflat o misiune a FMI, declaratiile oficialilor moldoveni si ale expertilor Fondului erau la fel de optimiste ca si acum, insa finantarea nu a fost deblocata, deoarece s-a constatat ca Guvernul nu respecta politicile convenite cu creditorii externi.