Russian
Global economic prospects have improved again, but the bumpy
recovery and skewed macroeconomic policy mix in advanced economies
are complicating policymaking in emerging market economies. Chapter
3 examines the prospects for inflation, particularly because
inflation was remarkably stable in the wake of the Great Recession
and, in fact, has become less responsive to cyclical conditions.
Chapter 4 examines whether today’s fast-growing, dynamic low-income
countries are likely to maintain their momentum and avoid the
reversals that afflicted many such countries in the past.
Contents
Chapter 1: Global Prospects and
Policies
Chapter 2: Country and Regional
Perspectives
Tables |
2.1 |
Selected European
Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.2 |
Selected Advanced
Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.3 |
Selected Asian
Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.4 |
Selected Western
Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.5 |
Selected Middle East
and North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer
Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.6 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment |
Figures |
Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
World: 2013 GDP Growth
Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
Europe: 2013 GDP Growth
Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.3 |
Advanced Europe:
Diminished Crisis Risks amid Prolonged Stagnation |
Chart |
Data |
2.4 |
Emerging Europe: A
Gradual Recovery from 2012 Slowdown |
Chart |
Data |
2.5 |
United States and
Canada: Slow but Steady Recovery |
Chart |
Data |
2.6 |
United States: Fiscal
Developments |
Chart |
Data |
2.7 |
Asia: 2013 GDP Growth
Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.8 |
Asia: Stabilization,
Recovery, and Accommodative Policies |
Chart |
Data |
2.9 |
Latin America and the
Caribbean: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.10 |
Latin America: Growth
Supported by Easy Financing Conditions |
Chart |
Data |
2.11 |
Middle East, North
Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: 2013 GDP Growth
Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.12 |
Middle East and North
Africa: Narrowing Differences in a Two-Speed Region |
Chart |
Data |
2.13 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.14 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States: An Improving Outlook with
Vulnerability to Global Slowdown |
Chart |
Data |
2.15 |
Sub-Saharan Africa:
2013 GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.16 |
Sub-Saharan Africa:
Continued Resilience |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.1 |
Policy Uncertainty in
the United States and Europe |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.2 |
General Uncertainty and
Confidence in the United States and Europe |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.3 |
Effect of U.S. or
European Policy Uncertainty Shock on Real GDP in
Other Regions |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.4 |
Growth Impact of U.S.
and European Policy Uncertainty Shocks |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.5 |
Effect of a U.S. or
European Policy Uncertainty Shock on Real Investment
in Other Regions |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.6 |
Peak Effect of U.S. and
European Policy Uncertainty Shock on Real GDP,
Consumption, and Investment in Other Regions |
Chapter 3: The Dog That Didn't
Bark: Has Inflation Been Muzzled or Was It Just Sleeping?
This chapter finds that inflation expectations have
remained strongly anchored to inflation targets during
the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery. Long-term
inflation expectations in advanced economies remain
close to targets despite wide variation in actual
inflation rates. Even in Japan, expectations remain
close to the 1 percent target announced in February 2012
despite a prolonged period of deflation. Furthermore,
coincident with greater central bank credibility, this
anchoring is found to have increased over time.
Box |
3.1 |
Inflation Targeting
Still Makes Sense with a Flatter Phillips Curve? |
Figures |
Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
The Behavior of
Inflation Has Changed |
Chart |
Data |
3.2 |
Measures of Current
Economic Slack |
Chart |
Data |
3.3 |
Current Headline
Inflation Compared with Expectations |
Chart |
Data |
3.4 |
Rolling Regressions of
Inflation Expectations over Actual Inflation |
Chart |
Data |
3.5 |
Inflation and Cyclical
Unemployment |
Chart |
Data |
3.6 |
Changes in the
Inflation Process |
Chart |
Data |
3.7 |
Robustness to
Alternative Estimates of the NAIRU |
Chart |
Data |
3.8 |
Actual and Predicted
Inflation in the United States |
Chart |
Data |
3.9 |
Unemployment and
Inflation in Selected Economies |
Chart |
Data |
3.10 |
Headline Inflation in
the United States and Germany |
Chapter 4: Breaking through
the Frontier: Can Today's Dynamic Low-Income Countries Make It?
The chapter compares this recent wave of dynamic LICs
with the previous wave, primarily dynamic LICs in the
1960s and 1970s, and finds: Important similarities: Both
achieved stronger investment rates and export growth
than LICs that were unable to takeoff. Striking
differences: Today’s dynamic LICs sustained growth with
much lower economic vulnerabilities than dynamic LICs in
the past. This reflects in part greater reliance on
foreign direct investment than on debt-financed
investment, as well as faster implementation of
structural reforms.
Tables |
4.1 |
Takeoffs in Low-Income
Countries, 1990– 2011 |
4.2 |
Takeoffs in Low-Income
Countries before 1990 |
4.3 |
Crises and the Ends of
Growth Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries, 1970–2011 |
4.4 |
Explaining Growth
Takeoffs in Dynamic Developing Economies |
4.5 |
Data Sources |
4.6 |
Economy Groups |
4.7 |
Logistic Regression
Robustness to Alternative Specifications and
Definition |
4.8 |
Logistic Regression
Robustness to Alternative Estimation Methods, Full
Sample |
Figures |
Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
Economic Performance of
Low-Income Countries and Others |
Chart |
Data |
4.2 |
Frequency of New and
Ongoing Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
The Global Environment
behind Low-Income Countries’ Growth Takeoffs |
Chart |
Data |
4.4 |
Real Output per Capita
after Takeoff in Low-Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.5 |
Economic Structure and
Real Output per Capita after Takeoff in Low-Income
Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.6 |
Investment and
Financing in Low-Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.7 |
Macroeconomic
Conditions in Low-Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.8 |
External
Competitiveness, Export Growth, and Diversification
in Low-Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.9 |
Structural Reforms,
Infrastructure, and Political Conditions in
Low-Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.10 |
Investment and
Financing across the Spectrum of Today’s Dynamic
Low- Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.11 |
Contributors to the
Changing Likelihood of a Growth Takeoff in
Low-Income Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.12 |
Brazil’s and Korea’s
Growth Experience during 1960–90 |
Chart |
Data |
4.13 |
Indonesia’s Growth
Experience since the 1960s |
Chart |
Data |
4.14 |
Mozambique’s Growth
Experience since the 1990s |
Chart |
Data |
4.15 |
Cambodia’s Growth
Experience since the 1990s |
Chart |
Data |
4.16 |
Macroeconomic
Conditions for Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income
Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.17 |
Aid and FDI Flows to
Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries |
Statistical Appendix
Text (Download PDF) |
Assumptions |
What's New |
Data and Conventions |
Classification of
Countries |
General Features and
Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook
Classification |
Table A. Classification
by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their
Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services,
and Population, 2011 |
Table B. Advanced
Economies by Subgroup |
Table C. European Union |
Table D. Emerging and
Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export
Earnings |
Table E. Emerging and
Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position,
and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries |
Box A1. Economic Policy
Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected
Economies |
|
List of Tables Part A (Download PDF) |
A1. |
Summary of
World Output |
A2. |
Advanced
Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand |
A3. |
Advanced
Economies: Components of Real GDP |
A4. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP |
A5. |
Summary of
Inflation |
A6. |
Advanced
Economies: Consumer Prices |
A7. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices |
A8. |
Major
Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances
and Debt |
A9. |
Summary of
World Trade Volumes and Prices |
A10. |
Summary of
Balances on Current Account |
A11. |
Advanced
Economies: Balance on Current Account |
A12. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Balance on Current
Account |
A13. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows |
A14. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows |
A15. |
Summary of
Sources and Uses of World Savings |
A16. |
Summary of
World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario |
|
List of Tables Part B
(Download
PDF - available on the web only) |
B1. |
Advanced
Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real per Capita
GDP |
B2. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP |
B3. |
Advanced
Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor
Costs in Manufacturing |
B4. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices |
B5. |
Summary of
Financial Indicators |
B6. |
Advanced
Economies: General and Central Government Net
Lending/Borrowing and Excluding Social Security Schemes |
B7. |
Advanced
Economies: General Government Structural Balances |
B8. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net
Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance |
B9. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net
Lending/Borrowing |
B10. |
Advanced
Economies: Exchange Rates |
B11. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates |
B12. |
Advanced
Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of
Trade in Goods and Services |
B13. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade
in Goods |
B14. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export
Earnings: Total Trade in Goods |
B15. |
Advanced
Economies: Current Account Transactions |
B16. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Balances on Current
Account |
B17. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Region: Current
Account Transactions |
B18. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria:
Current Account Transactions |
B19. |
Summary of
Balance of Payments, Financial Flows, and External
Financing |
B20. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Region: Balance of
Payments and External Financing |
B21. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria:
Balance of Payments and External Financing |
B22. |
Summary of
External Debt and Debt Service |
B23. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt
by Maturity and Type of Creditor |
B24. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria:
External Debt, by Maturity and Type of Creditor |
B25. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt
to GDP |
B26. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios |
B27. |
Emerging
Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline
Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators |
Source
|