Russian
The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the
prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the
ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S.
policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies
reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3
explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs.
In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been
slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints,
weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors,
but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to
shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.
Chapter 1: Global
Prospects and Policies
The recovery has suffered new setbacks, and uncertainty
weighs heavily on the outlook. A key reason is that policies
in the major advanced economies have not rebuilt confidence
in medium-term prospects. Tail risks, such as those relating
to the viability of the euro area or major U.S. fiscal
policy mistakes, continue to preoccupy investors. The
World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast thus sees only a
gradual strengthening of activity from the relatively
disappointing pace of early 2012.
| Boxes |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
Are We Underestimating Short-term
Fiscal Multipliers? |
Chart
Chart
Chart
|
Data
Data
Data
|
1.2 |
The Implications of High Public Debt in
Advanced Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.3 |
How Does Uncertainty Affect Economic
Performance? |
| |
|
1.4 |
Unconventional Energy in the United
States |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.5 |
Food Supply Crunch—Who Is Most
Vulnerable? |
| Tables |
| 1.1 |
Overview of the World
Economic Outlook Projections |
| 1.SF.1 |
Indices of Market Prices
for Nonfuel and Fuel Commodities, 2009–12 |
| 1.SF.2 |
Global Oil Supply and
Demand by Region |
| 1.1.1 |
Growth Forecast Errors and
Fiscal Consolidation |
| 1.2.1 |
Importance of the
Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution |
| 1.3.1 |
Uncertainty over the
Business Cycle |
| 1.3.2 |
Uncertainty and Growth |
| 1.3.3 |
Uncertainty and Business
Cycles |
| 1.5.1 |
Regional Food Vulnerability |
| Figures |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
Global Indicators |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.2 |
Euro Area Developments |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.3 |
Current and Forward-Looking Growth
Indicators |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.4 |
Fiscal Policies |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.5 |
Monetary Policies |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.6 |
Recent Financial Market Developments |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.7 |
Emerging Market Conditions |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.8 |
GDP Growth |
|
Chart |
|
1.9 |
Overheating Indicators for the G20
Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.10 |
Global Inflation |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.11 |
Risks to the Global Outlook |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.12 |
Recessions and Deflation Risks |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.13 |
Upside and Downside Scenarios |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.14 |
Output in Emerging Market and
Developing Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.15 |
Lower Global Growth Scenario |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.16 |
Crisis Comparisons |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.17 |
Global Imbalances |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.18 |
Euro Area Imbalances |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.1 |
IMF Commodity Price Index |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.2 |
Oil Prices and Volatility |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.3 |
Base Metal Spot Prices |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.4 |
Food Prices and Volatility |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.5 |
Influence of Common Factors: Pairwise
Correlations with First Principal Components |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.6 |
Commodity Prices and Economic Activity:
First Principal Components |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.7 |
Demand for Base Metals |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.8 |
Oil Supply and Demand |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.9 |
Oil Inventories and Spare Capacity |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.10 |
Inventory Buffers for Food |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.11 |
Futures Prices |
|
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.12 |
Price Prospects for Selected
Commodities |
Chapter 2: Country and
Regional Perspectives
Global growth slowed again during the second quarter of 2012
after rebounding during the first. The slowing was observed
in all regions, which suggests an important role for common
factors, many of which reflected wide-ranging spillovers
from large country-specific or regional shocks. A first
shock was the ratcheting up of financial stress in the euro
area periphery in the second quarter. Second, domestic
demand in many economies in Asia and Latin America (notably
Brazil, China, and India, but also others) slowed, owing not
just to weaker external demand from Europe but also to
domestic factors. Growth also decelerated in the United
States.
| Tables |
| 2.1 |
Selected European
Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account
Balance, and Unemployment |
| 2.2 |
Selected Advanced
Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account
Balance, and Unemployment |
| 2.3 |
Selected Asian Economies:
Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and
Unemployment |
| 2.4 |
Selected Western Hemisphere
Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account
Balance, and Unemployment |
| 2.5 |
Commonwealth of Independent
States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account
Balance, and Unemployment |
| 2.6 |
Selected Middle East and
North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment |
| 2.7 |
Selected Sub-Saharan
African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment |
| 2.SF.1 |
Behavior of Stress
Indicators, 2007–12 |
| 2.SF.2 |
Data for Spillover Focus |
| Figures |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
Revisions to WEO Growth Projections for
2012 and 2013 |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
The Effects of Lower Potential Growth |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.3 |
Weekly Equity and Bond Fund Flows
during Financial Stress in Advanced Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.4 |
Europe: Revisions to 2013 GDP Growth
Forecasts |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.5 |
Europe: In the Midst of Economic and
Financial Stress |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.6 |
United States and Canada: Revisions to
2013 GDP Growth Forecasts |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.7 |
United States and Canada: A Weak
Recovery |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.8 |
Asia: Revisions to 2013 GDP Growth
Forecasts |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.9 |
Asia: Activity Decelerates |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.10 |
Latin America and the Caribbean:
Revisions to 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.11 |
Latin America: A Moderate Slowdown |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.12 |
Commonwealth of Independent States:
Revisions to 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.13 |
Commonwealth of Independent States:
Vulnerable to Negative Spillovers |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.14 |
Middle East and North Africa: Revisions
to 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.15 |
Middle East and North Africa: An Uneven
Recovery |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.16 |
Sub-Saharan Africa: Revisions to 2013
GDP Growth Forecasts |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.17 |
Sub-Saharan Africa: A Strong Expansion |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.1 |
Financing Conditions for Euro Area
Periphery Economies and the United States, 2007-12 |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.2 |
Changes in Stress Indicators, 2007–12 |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.3 |
Global Weekly Capital Flows |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.4 |
Global Fund Flows during Stress |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.5 |
The Composition of Capital Flows during
Stress |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.6 |
Global Asset Price Performance around
Stress Episodes |
|
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.7 |
Global Trade Linkages with Advanced
Economies and China |
Chapter 3: The
Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: 100 Years of Dealing with Public Debt
Overhangs
Throughout the past century, numerous advanced economies
have faced public debt burdens as high, or higher, than
those prevailing today. They responded with a wide variety
of policy approaches. This chapter analyzes these
experiences and concludes that the first priority today must
be to complement fiscal consolidation with measures to
support growth, especially, very accommodative monetary
policy and structural reforms.
| Table |
| 3.1 |
Differentiating Episodes by
the Change in the Debt-to-GDP Ratio |
| Figures |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
Public Debt in Advanced Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.2 |
Debt-to-GDP Dynamics after Public Debt
Reaches 100 Percent of GDP |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.3 |
Debt-to-GDP Dynamics |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.4 |
High Debt, Growth, and Inflation |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.5 |
Debt and Growth Performance |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.6 |
Debt-to-GDP Dynamics after Crossing the
100 Percent Threshold |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.7 |
United Kingdom: Deflation in the
Aftermath of World War I |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.8 |
United States: Debt Dynamics after
World War II |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.9 |
Japan: Lost Decade |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.10 |
Italy: Fading Zeal |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.11 |
Belgium: A Marathon Not a Sprint |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.12 |
Canada: Fiscal Consolidation after 1985 |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.13 |
Decomposition of Debt Dynamics in Case
Study Countries |
|
Chart |
Data |
3.14 |
Contribution to GDP from Exports |
Chapter 4:
Resilience in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Will It
Last?
Many emerging market and developing economies have done well
over the past decade and through the global financial
crisis, but the question on policymakers' minds now is
whether this strong performance will last. There are reasons
for optimism, including improved policymaking and greater
"policy space"—room to respond to shocks without undermining
sustainability.
| Boxes |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
Diverging Global Labor Market Trends,
2007–11 |
|
Chart |
Data |
|
Distribution of Okun’s Law Coefficients
and Employment Responsiveness, 2007–11 |
|
Chart |
Data |
|
Okun's Law: Employment and Output in
Emerging Market and Developing Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.2 |
Composition of China's Growth and
Imports |
|
Chart |
Data |
|
Increasing Exports to China |
|
Chart |
Data |
|
Impact of an Investment Slowdown in
China |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
The Resilience of Kenya and Tanzania |
| Tables |
| 4.1 |
What Ends Expansions and
Recoveries? |
| 4.2 |
Data Sources |
| 4.3 |
Economy Groups |
| 4.4 |
AR(1) Median Coefficients
and Interquartile Range |
| 4.5 |
What Shortens Expansions?
Robustness Checks |
| 4.1.1 |
Short-Term Relationship
between Labor Market Outcomes and Growth, by Country
Group |
| 4.1.2 |
Determinants of Okun
Coefficients and Employment Responsiveness |
| Figures |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
The Strong Performance of Emerging
Market and Developing Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.2 |
Diverse Paths of Output |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
Dynamics of Output per Capita following
Peaks |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.4 |
Emerging Market and Developing Economy
Regions: Dynamics of Output per Capita following Peaks |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.5 |
Along Which Dimensions Has Emerging
Market and Developing Economy Growth Improved? |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.6 |
Why Have Emerging Market and Developing
Economies Become More Resilient? |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.7 |
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies: Effects of Various Shocks on the Likelihood
That an Expansion Will End |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.8 |
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies: Effects of Policies on Expansion Duration and
Speed of Recovery |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.9 |
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies: Effects of Structural Characteristics on
Expansion Duration and Speed of Recovery |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.10 |
Frequency of Various Types of Domestic
and External Shocks to Emerging Market and Developing
Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.11 |
Policy Frameworks and Policy Space in
Emerging Market and Developing Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.12 |
Structural Characteristics of Emerging
Market and Developing Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.13 |
Contribution of Shocks, Policies, and
Structure to the Length of Expansions in Emerging Market
and Developing Economies |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.14 |
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies: Effects of Changing the Autoregression Model
Coefficients |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.15 |
Emerging Market and Developing Economy
Subgroups: Dynamics of Output per Capita following Peaks |
|
Chart |
Data |
4.16 |
Emerging Market and Developing Economy
Regions: Contributions of Shocks, Policies, and
Structure to the Length of Expansions |
Statistical Appendix
|
Text (Download PDF) |
| Assumptions |
| What's New |
| Data and Conventions |
| Classification of Countries |
| General Features and Composition of Groups in
the World Economic Outlook Classification |
| Table A. Classification by World Economic
Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports
of Goods and Services, and Population, 2011 |
| Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup |
| Table C. European Union |
| Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by
Region and Main Source of Export Earnings |
| Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by
Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted
Poor Countries |
| Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying
the Projections for Selected Economies |
| |
|
List of Tables Part A (Download PDF) |
| Output (Tables A1–A4) |
| Inflation (Tables A5–A7) |
| Financial Policies (Table A8) |
| Foreign Trade (Table A9) |
| Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) |
| Balance of Payments and External Financing
(Tables A13–A14) |
| Flow of Funds (Table A15) |
| Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A16) |
| |
|
List of Tables Part B (Download
PDF - available on the web only) |
| Output (Tables B1–B2) |
| Inflation (Tables B3–B4) |
| Financial Policies (Tables B5–B10) |
| Foreign Trade (Tables B11–B13) |
| Current Account Transactions (Tables B14–B17) |
| Balance of Payments and External Financing
(Tables B18–B20) |
| External Debt and Debt Service (Tables B21–B26) |
| Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table B27) |
| |
|
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics
|
Source
|
