Moldova & IMF IMF Activities Publications Press Releases


                                                                                                   Russian

World Economic Outlook

Slowing Growth, Rising Risks

September 2011

 

www.imf.org/weo

World Economic Outlook Database

Full text - download PDF PDF


Contents
 
Assumptions and Conventions
Further Information and Data
Preface
Foreword
Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

Slowing Global Activity
Renewed Financial Instability
More Uneven Expansion
Economic Slack alongside Signs of Overheating
Risks Are Clearly to the Downside
Policy Challenges
National Perspectives on Policy Challenges
Multilateral Perspectives on Policy Challenges
Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects
References

Chapter 2: Country and Regional Perspectives

The United States: Weakening Again amid Daunting Debt Challenges
Europe: Enduring Economic and Financial Turbulence
Commonwealth of Independent States: Moderate Growth Performance
Asia: Securing a More Balanced Expansion
Latin America and the Caribbean: Moving toward More Sustainable Growth
Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining the Expansion
Middle East and North Africa: Growth Stalling amid Uncertainty
References

Chapter 3: Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary Policy

Commodity Price Swings and Inflation
Monetary Policy and Food Price Shocks: A Simulation-Based Perspective
Policy Implications for Responding to Commodity Price Shocks
Appendix 3.1. Economies in the Data Set
Appendix 3.2. Technical Appendix
References

Chapter 4: Separated at Birth? The Twin Budget and Trade Balances

Estimating the Strength of the Twin Deficits Link
Insights from Model-Based Simulations
Summary and Implications for the Outlook
Appendix 4.1 Data Construction and Sources
Appendix 4.2 Statistical Methodology, Robustness Checks, and Selected Additional Results on Export and Import Responses
Appendix 4.3 Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF)
References

Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, August 2011
 
Statistical Appendix
Assumptions
What's New
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2010
Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup
Table C. European Union
Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies
 
List of Tables
Output (Tables A1–A4)
Inflation (Tables A5–A7)
Financial Policies (Table A8)
Foreign Trade (Table A9)
Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12)
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13–A15)
Flow of Funds (Table A16)
Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17)
 
List of Tables Part B (available on the web only)
Output (Tables B1–B2)
Inflation (Tables B3–B4)
Financial Policies (Tables B5–B10)
Foreign Trade (Tables B11–B13)
Current Account Transactions (Tables B14–B17)
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables B18–B20)
External Debt and Debt Service (Tables B21–B25)
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table B26)
 
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics
Boxes
Chart
Chart
 Chart		 Data
Data
 Data		 1.1 Slow Recovery to Nowhere? A Sectoral View of Labor Markets in Advanced Economies
Chart Data 1.2 Credit Boom-Bust Cycles: Their Triggers and Policy Implications
Chart Data 1.3 Are Equity Price Drops Harbingers of Recession?
Chart
Chart
 Chart		 Data
Data
 Data		 1.4 Financial Investment, Speculation, and Commodity Prices
Chart
 Chart		 Data
 Data		 1.5 External Liabilities and Crisis Tipping Points
Chart
Chart
 Chart		 Data
Data
 Data		 3.1 Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 2008 Commodity Price Surge
Chart
 Chart		 Data
 Data		 3.2 Food Price Swings and Monetary Policy in Open Economies
    A.1 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies
 
Tables
1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
1.2. Global Oil Demand and Production by Region
1.2.1. What Triggers Credit Booms
1.3.1. Summary Statistics for Real Equity Price Growth
1.3.2. Predicting New Recessions with Financial Market Variables
1.5.1. Probit Estimates of Crisis Probability
1.5.2. Model's Predictive Power
2.1. Selected Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.2. Selected European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.3. Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.4. Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.5. Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.6. Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.7. Selected Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
3.1. Gasoline Pass-through from Oil Prices
3.2. Flour and Bread Pass-through from Wheat Prices
3.1.1. Variations in Inflation: Sub-Saharan Africa
3.1.2. Food Inflation Dynamics
3.1.3. Inflation Dynamics
3.1.4. Macroeconomics Environment: Sub-Saharan Africa
4.1. Data Sources
   
Tables
A1. Summary of World Output
A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand
A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP
A4. Emerging and Developing Economies by Country: Real GDP
A5. Summary of Inflation
A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices
A7. Emerging and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices
A10. Summary of Balances on Current Account
A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account
A12. Emerging and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account
A13. Emerging and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows
A14. Emerging and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows
A15. Emerging and Developing Economies: Reserves
A16. Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings
A17. Summary of Word Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
   
Online Tables
B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real per Capita GDP
B2. Emerging and Developing Economies: Real GDP
B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing
B4. Emerging and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
B5. Summary of Financial Indicators
B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Excluding Social Security Schemes
B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances
B8. Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
B9. Emerging and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance
B10. Emerging and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates
B11. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services
B12. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods
B13. Emerging and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods
B14. Advanced Economies: Current Account Transactions
B15. Emerging and Developing Economies: Balances on Current Account
B16. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Current Account Transactions
B17. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Current Account Transactions
B18. Summary of Balance of Payments, Financial Flows, and External Financing
B19. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Balance of Payments and External Financing
B20. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Balance of Payments and External Financing
B21. Summary of External Debt and Debt Service
B22. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor
B23. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor
B24. Emerging and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP
B25. Emerging and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios
B26. Emerging and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators
 
Figures
Chart Data 1.1 Global Indicators
Chart Data 1.2 Financial Strains in Europe and the United States
Chart Data 1.3 Recent Financial Market Developments
Chart Data 1.4 Prospects for Near-Term Activity
Chart Data 1.5 Global Outlook
Chart Data 1.6 Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators
Chart Data 1.7 Balance Sheets and Saving Rates
Chart Data 1.8 Emerging Market Conditions
Chart Data 1.9 Emerging Market Economies with Strong Credit Expansion
Chart Data 1.10 Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced and Emerging Market Economies
Chart Data 1.11 General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt
Chart Data 1.12 Cyclical Conditions
Chart Data 1.13 Global Projection Model Estimates of the Output Gap
Chart Data 1.14 Global Inflation
Chart Data 1.15 Risks to the Global Outlook
Chart Data 1.16 WEO Downside Scenario
Chart   1.17 Overheating Indicators for the G20 Countries
Chart Data 1.18 Policy Requirements in Emerging Market Economies
Chart Data 1.19 External Developments
Chart Data 1.20 Global Imbalances
Chart Data 1.21 Employment and Unemployment
Chart Data 1.22 Drivers of Global Growth and Rebalancing
Chart Data 1.23 Commodity Prices
Chart Data 1.24 World Energy Market Developments
Chart Data 1.25 Developments in Base Metal Markets
Chart Data 1.26 Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops
Chart Data 2.1 Current Global Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.2 Output Gaps and Inflation
Chart Data 2.3 United States and Canada: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.4 United States: Struggling to Gain a Foothold
Chart Data 2.5 Europe: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.6 Europe: An Uneven Performance and Elevated Risks
Chart Data 2.7 Commonwealth of Independent States: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.8 Commonwealth of Independent States: A Gradual Recovery
Chart Data 2.9 Asia: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.10 Asia: A Bright Spot in the World Economy
Chart Data 2.11 Latin America and the Caribbean: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.12 Latin America: Maintaining the Growth Momentum
Chart Data 2.13 Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.14 Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Strength
Chart Data 2.15 Middle East and North Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
Chart Data 2.16 Middle East and North Africa: Weakening Activity in an Uncertain Environment
Chart Data 3.1 World Commodity Prices, 2000–11
Chart Data 3.2 World Commodity Prices, 1957–2011
Chart Data 3.3 Food Price Forecasts
Chart Data 3.4 Pass-through from World Inflation to Domestic Inflation
Chart Data 3.5 Variability of Real Domestic Prices
Chart Data 3.6 Share of Food in the Consumption Basket
Chart Data 3.7 Contribution of Food and Transportation to Headline Inflation
Chart Data 3.8 Response of Inflation Expectations to Inflation Surprises
Chart Data 3.9 Pass-through from International to Domestic Food Price Inflation
Chart Data 3.10 Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Emerging and Developing Economy
Chart Data 3.11 Inflation-Output Policy Frontier
Chart Data 3.12 Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized High-Credibility Emerging and Developing Economy
Chart Data 3.13 Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Advanced Economy
Chart Data 3.14 One-Time versus Persistent Food Price Shocks
Chart Data 3.15 Response to a Food Price Shock amid Current Cyclical Conditions
Chart Data 4.1 Incidence of Action-Based Fiscal Policy Changes by Year
Chart Data 4.2 Effects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation
Chart Data 4.3 Effects on Economic Activity of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation
Chart Data 4.4 Effects on Saving and Investment of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation
Chart Data 4.5 Effects on the Composition of Saving and Investment of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation
Chart Data 4.6 Effects on Export and Import Volumes of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation
Chart Data 4.7 Effects on Exchange Rates, Prices, and Interest Rates of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation
Chart Data 4.8 Effects of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation under Pegged and Nonpegged Exchange Rate Regimes
Chart Data 4.9 Effects of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation under Constrained Monetary Policy: GIMF Simulations
Chart Data 4.10 Effects of a Synchronized Global 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation: GIMF Simulations
Chart Data 4.11 Planned Fiscal Adjustment and the Current Account Impact: GIMF Simulations
Chart Data 4.12 Robustness: Effects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation
Chart Data 4.13 Effects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Policy Change
Chart Data 4.14 Fiscal Instruments and Their Effects on the Current Account

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