Contents
| Assumptions and Conventions, Preface, Foreword | |||
| Executive Summary | |||
| Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policy Issues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Text | Video Briefing | Boxes | Charts | |||
| Global Economic Environment | |||
| Outlook and Short-Term Risks | |||
| Cross-Country Spillovers: Can the Global Economy Decouple from a U.S. Slowdown? | |||
| Medium-Term Challenges: Can the Productivity Boom Be Sustained? | |||
| Policy Challenges | |||
| Appendix 1.1. Recent Developments in Commodity Markets | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives | |||
| Full Text | Boxes | Charts | |||
| United States and Canada: How Much Will the U.S. Economy Slow? | |||
| Western Europe: Can Recent Vigor Be Sustained? | |||
| Industrial Asia: Japan's Expansion Remains on Track | |||
| Emerging Asia: How Resilient Is the Region to a U.S. Slowdown? | |||
| Latin America: Boosting Productivity Is the Key to Sustaining Growth | |||
| Emerging Europe: Integrating with the European Union | |||
Comunitatea Statelor Independente: Creştere puternică, dar se simte necesitatea unei diversificări economice mai vaste (html text format) |
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| Africa: Sustaining Recent Growth Momentum | |||
| Middle East: Expanding the Benefits of the Oil Boom | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 3. Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External Imbalances | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video Briefing | Boxes | Charts | |||
| Past Episodes of Large External Imbalances: An Event Analysis | |||
| How Responsive Are U.S. Trade Volumes to Exchange Rate Movements? | |||
| Implications for Global Imbalances | |||
| Conclusions | |||
| Appendix 3.1. Event Analysis: Methodology and Data | |||
| Appendix 3.2. Econometric Estimates of Trade Models | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 4. Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video Briefing | Boxes | Charts | |||
| U.S. Economy and International Business Cycle Fluctuations | |||
| Identifying Common Elements in International Business Cycle Fluctuations | |||
| How the United States Affects the Global EconomyA Model-Based Simulation Analysis | |||
| Summary and Conclusions | |||
| Appendix 4.1. Econometric Methodology | |||
| Appendix 4.2. Common Elements in International Business Cycle Fluctuations: Description of the Dynamic Factor Models | |||
| References | |||
| Chapter 5. The Globalization of Labor | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video Briefing | Boxes | Charts | |||
| How Globalized Is Labor? | |||
| How Has the Globalization of Labor Affected Workers in Advanced Economies? | |||
| Summary and Policy Implications | |||
| Appendix 5.1. Data Sources and Methods | |||
| References | |||
| Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2007 | |||
| Statistical Appendix | |||
| Assumptions | |||
| What's New | |||
| Data and Conventions | |||
| Classification of Countries | |||
| General Features and Composition of Countries in the World Economic Outlook | |||
| Classification | |||
| General Features and Composition of Countries in the World Economic Outlook Classification | |||
| List of boxes | |||
| Output (Tables 16) | |||
| Inflation (Tables 711) | |||
| Financial Policies (Tables 1219) | |||
| Foreign Trade (Tables 2024) | |||
| Current Account Transactions (Tables 2531) | |||
| Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 3236) | |||
| External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 3742) | |||
| Flow of Funds (Table 43) | |||
| Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 4445) | |||
| World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics | |||
| Chapter 1 Boxes | |||
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
1.1 | Understanding the Link Between Oil Prices and the World Economy |
| Chart | Data | 1.2 | Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries |
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | Oil Consumption Across Major Countries: Is the United States Different? |
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
1.4 | Hedging Against Oil Price Volatility |
| Chapter 2 Boxes | |||
| Chart | Data | 2.1 | Housing Market Slowdowns |
| Chart | Data | 2.2 | Lessons from Successful European Labor Market Reformers |
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
2.3 | Is China Investing Too Much? |
| Chapter 3 Boxes | |||
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | External Sustainability and Financial Integration |
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
3.2 | Large and Persistent Current Account Imbalances |
| 3.3 | Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices and External Adjustment | ||
| Chapter 4 Boxes | |||
| Chart | Data | 4.1 | Financial Linkages and Spillovers |
|
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
4.2 | Macroeconomic Conditions in Industrial Countries and Financial Flows to Emerging Markets |
| Chart | Data | 4.3 | Spillovers and International Business Cycle Synchronization: A Broader Perspective |
| Chapter 5 Boxes | |||
| 5.1 | Emigration and Trade: How Do They Affect Developing Countries? | ||
| Appendix Boxes | |||
| A1. | Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies | ||
| Tables | |||
| 1.1 | Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections | ||
| 1.2 | Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows | ||
| 1.3 | Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt | ||
| 1.4 | Global Oil Demand by Region | ||
| 1.5 | Effects of Petroleum Products on Production of Selected Grains in the United States | ||
| 2.1 | Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment | ||
| 2.2 | Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions | ||
| 2.3 | Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.4 | Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.5 | Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.6 | Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.7 | Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.8 | Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 3.1 | Summary Statistics of Episodes of Reversals | ||
| 3.2 | Standard Trade Model: Estimates of U.S. Trade Elasticities | ||
| 3.3 | List of Reversal Episodes | ||
| 3.4 | List of Large and Persistent Episodes | ||
| 3.5 | Advanced Economies: Contractionary and Expansionary Deficit Reversals | ||
| 3.6 | Emerging Markets: Contractionary and Expansionary Surplus Reversals | ||
| 3.7 | Variable Definitions | ||
| 3.8 | Standard Empirical Trade Model: Long-Run U.S. Trade Elasticities | ||
| 3.9 | Long-Run U.S. Trade Elasticities and Aggregation Bias | ||
| 3.10 | Long-Run U.S. Import Elasticities and Vertical Integration | ||
| 3.11 | Nonlinearity Tests (p value) and Thresholds for Changes in Relative Import Prices | ||
| 3.12 | Error Correction Model for U.S. Imports, Sample 1973:Q12006:Q3 | ||
| 4.1 | Role of Large Economies in the Global Economy | ||
| 4.2 | Export Orientation by Region | ||
| 4.3 | External Portfolio Assets and Liabilities by Region | ||
| 4.4 | U.S. Downturns and Global Growth | ||
| 4.5 | Growth and Spillovers (1) | ||
| 4.6 | Growth and Spillovers (2) | ||
| 4.7 | Contributions to Output Fluctuations | ||
| 4.8 | Consumption | ||
| 4.9 | Investment | ||
| 4.10 | Contributions to Business Cycle Fluctuations in G-7 Countries | ||
| 5.1 | Classification of Sectors by Skill Intensity | ||
| 5.2 | Impact of Labor Globalization and Technological Change on Labor Shares | ||
| 5.3 | Impact of Labor Globalization and Technological Change on the Skilled and Unskilled Labor Shares | ||
| Chapter 1 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 1.1 | Global Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.2 | Current and Forward-Looking Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | Global Inflation |
| Chart | Data | 1.4 | Developments in Mature Financial Markets |
| Chart | Data | 1.5 | Mature Financial Market Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.6 | Emerging Market Financial Conditions |
| Chart | Data | 1.7 | External Developments in Major Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 1.8 | External Developments in Emerging Market Countries |
| Chart | Data | 1.9 | Global Outlook |
| Chart | Data | 1.10 | Risks to the Global Outlook |
| Chart | Data | 1.11 | Productivity and Labor Cost Developments in Selected Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 1.12 | Measures of the Output Gap and Capacity Pressures |
| Chart | Data | 1.13 | Current Account Balances and Net Foreign Assets |
| Chart | Data | 1.14 | Global Productivity Performance |
| Chart | Data | 1.15 | Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts |
| Chart | Data | 1.16 | Saving and Investment in Emerging Market and Oil-Producing Economies |
| Chart | Data | 1.17 | Average Petroleum Spot and Futures Prices, and Selected Energy Product Prices |
| Chart | Data | 1.18 | Demand and Prices of Petroleum Products in Selected Developing and OECD Countries |
| Chart | Data | 1.19 | Oil Supply, OECD Inventories, and OPEC Spare Capacity |
| Chart | Data | 1.20 | Actual and Expected Semiannual World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growth, and Brent Crude Oil Prices |
| Chart | Data | 1.21 | Commodity Price Indices and Selected Metals and Food Price Indices |
| Chart | Data | 1.22 | Semiconductor Market |
| Chapter 2 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 2.1 | United States: How Much Will the U.S. Economy Slow? |
| Chart | Data | 2.2 | United States: Developments in the Residential and Nonresidential Construction Sectors |
| Chart | Data | 2.3 | Western Europe: Productivity Is Failing to Catch Up |
| Chart | Data | 2.4 | Western Europe: Need to do More to Raise Labor Utilization |
| Chart | Data | 2.5 | Japan: Understanding Developments in Domestic Demand |
| Chart | Data | 2.6 | Emerging Asia: Assessing the Resilience to a Global Slowdown |
| Chart | Data | 2.7 | Latin America: Productivity Is Lagging |
| Chart | Data | 2.8 | Emerging Europe: Convergence with the European Union |
| Chart | Data | 2.9 | Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Further Return Needed to Raise Investment Levels |
| Chart | Data | 2.10 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Can Recent Growth Momentum Be Sustained? |
| Chart | Data | 2.11 | Middle East: Investment in Non-Oil Sectors Key to Employment Growth |
| Chapter 3 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | Episodes of Deficit Reversals and Large and Persistent Deficits |
| Chart | Data | 3.2 | Advanced Economies: Key Indicators During Deficit Reversals |
| Chart | Data | 3.3 | Deficit Reversals in Advanced Economies: Episode Characteristics by Average Change in GDP Growth |
| Chart | Data | 3.4 | Advanced Economies: Total Change in Real Effective Exchange Rate and Average Change in GDP Growth During Deficit Reversals |
| Chart | Data | 3.5 | Episodes of Surplus Reversals and Large and Persistent Surpluses |
| Chart | Data | 3.6 | Key Indicators During Surplus Reversals |
| Chart | Data | 3.7 | Surplus Reversals in Emerging Markets: Episode Characteristics by Average Change in GDP Growth |
| Chart | Data | 3.8 | Oil Exporters: Surplus Reversals |
| Chart | Data | 3.9 | Thresholds in Relative Trade Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Flexibility of Markets |
| Chart | Data | 3.10 | United States: Trade Flows, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), and Growth Differential with Trading Partners |
| Chart | Data | 3.11 | Required Exchange Rate Change for a 1 Percentage Point Reduction in the Ratio of U.S. Trade Deficit to GDP |
| Chart | Data | 3.12 | Sectoral Price Elasticities of Trade |
| Chapter 4 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 4.1 | U.S. Recessions and Real GDP Growth by Region |
| Chart | Data | 4.2 | Trade Orientation |
| Chart | Data | 4.3 | United States: Real Imports, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Real Stock Returns, and Interest Rates During Recessions and Slowdowns |
| Chart | Data | 4.4 | Output Gaps and Structural Characteristics During U.S. Recessions |
| Chart | Data | 4.5 | Growth Declines and Spillovers: Regional Implications |
| Chart | Data | 4.6 | Impact of Growth Declines in the United States and Japan |
| Chart | Data | 4.7 | Global Factor |
| Chart | Data | 4.8 | Global Implications of a Disturbance to U.S. Private Demand |
| Chart | Data | 4.9 | Global Growth and Inflation with Correlated Disturbances and Delayed Monetary Policy Response |
| Chart | Data | 4.10 | Limited In-Sample Persistence of U.S. Growth Shocks |
| Chart | Data | 4.11 | Impact of U.S. Growth Declines on Growth in Latin America: Effects by Country |
| Chart | Data | 4.12 | Impact of Euro Area Growth Declines on Growth in Latin America: Effects by Country |
| Chart | Data | 4.13 | Impact of U.S. Growth Declines on Growth in Emerging Asia: Effects by Country |
| Chart | Data | 4.14 | Impact of Japanese Growth Declines on Growth in Emerging Asia: Effects by Country |
| Chapter 5 Charts | |||
| Chart | Data | 5.1 | Alternative Measures of Global Labor Supply |
| Chart | Data | 5.2 | Immigration and Trade |
| Chart | Data | 5.3 | Share of Developing Countries in Trade |
| Chart | Data | 5.4 | Developing Countries: Exports of Skilled Manufacturing Goods and Services |
| Chart | Data | 5.5 | Offshoring by Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 5.6 | Advanced Economies: Offshoring by Category of Inputs |
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Chart Chart |
Data Data |
5.7 | Advanced Economies: Labor Income Shares |
| Chart | Data | 5.8 | Advanced Economies: Labor Compensation and Employment |
| Chart | Data | 5.9 | Advanced Economies: Labor Compensation and Employment in Skilled and Unskilled Sectors |
| Chart | Data | 5.10 | Catch-Up by Emerging Markets' Manufacturing Wages |
| Chart | Data | 5.11 | Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Capital, Patents, and Labor Market Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 5.12 | Contributions to the Annual Change in Labor Share |
| Chart | Data | 5.13 | Advanced Economies: Contributions to the Annual Change in the Labor Share by Skill Level |
| Chart | Data | 5.14 | Effects of Changes in Trade Prices on Labor Share, Output, and Labor Compensation |
| Chart | Data | 5.15 | Advanced Economies' Labor Income Share, Labor Compensation, and Employment: Robustness to Alternative Skill Classification |
