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Assumptions
and Conventions
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Preface
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Foreword
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Executive Summary
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Chapter 1. Global
Prospects and Policy Issues |
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Full Text | Boxes | Charts |
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Global Economic
Environment |
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Outlook and Short-Term
Risks |
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Unwinding
Global Imbalances |
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Policy Challenges |
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Appendix 1.1. Recent
Developments in Commodity Markets |
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References |
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Chapter 2. Country and Regional
Perspectives |
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Full Text |Boxes | Charts |
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United States and Canada:
Inflationary Pressures Are Beginning to Rise |
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Western Europe:
Structural Reforms Remain the Key to Stronger Growth |
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Japan: Monetary Policy
Adjusts to the End of Deflation |
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Emerging Asia: China's
Growth Spurt Benefits the Region but Carries Risks |
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Latin America: Continuing
to Build Resilience |
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Emerging Europe: Managing
Risks From Heavy Reliance on Foreign Savings |
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Commonwealth of
Independent States: Managing Large Foreign Currency
Inflows
Comunitatea Statelor
Independente:
Gestionarea afluxurilor
masive de valută
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Africa: Strong Growth
Continues Despite High Oil Prices |
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Middle East: Living with
Booming Oil Exports |
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References |
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Chapter 3. Asia Rising: Patterns of
Economic Development and Growth |
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Full Text | Summary | Video
Briefing/Sound bites
| Boxes | Charts
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Asia's Economic Success |
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Perspiration
or Inspiration? |
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Sectoral Effects:
Cross-Sector Shifts or Within-Sector Growth? |
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Policy Determinants of
Productivity Growth |
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Conclusions |
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Appendix 3.1 Asia Rising:
Methods and Additional Results |
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References |
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Chapter 4. How Do Financial Systems
Affect Economic Cycles? |
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Full Text | Summary | Video
Briefing/Sound bites
| Boxes | Charts
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How Have Financial
Systems Changed? |
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How Do Differences in
Financial Systems Affect the Behavior of Households
Firms, and Cross-Border Capital Flows? |
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Conclusions |
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Appendix 4.1 Building the
Financial Index |
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Appendix 4.2 Econometric
Methodology |
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References |
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Chapter 5. The Boom in NonFuel
Commodity Prices: Can It Last? |
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Full Text | Summary | Video
Briefing/Sound bites
| Boxes | Charts
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Long-Term Trends in
Commodity Prices and Volatility |
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Assessment of Recent
Developments |
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Role of Emerging Markets |
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Will the Recent Run-Up in
Metals Prices Be Sustained? |
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Outlook for Food and
Other Agricultural Commodities |
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Conclusions |
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Appendix
5.1 Model of Aluminum and Copper Markets |
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Appendix 5.2 Modeling the
Relationship Between Speculation and Commodity Prices |
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References |
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Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of
the Outlook, August 2006 |
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Statistical Appendix |
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Assumptions |
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What's New |
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Data and Conventions |
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Classification of
Countries |
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General Features and
Composition of Countries in the
World Economic Outlook |
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Classification
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| List of Tables |
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Output (Tables 16) |
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Inflation (Tables 711) |
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Financial Policies (Tables
1219) |
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Foreign Trade (Tables
2024) |
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Current Account
Transactions (Tables 2531) |
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Balance of Payments and
External Financing (Tables 3236) |
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External Debt and Debt
Service (Tables 3742) |
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Flow of Funds (Table 43) |
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Medium-Term Baseline
Scenario (Tables 4445) |
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World Economic Outlook
and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook,
Selected Topics |
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Chapter 1 Boxes |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
1.1 |
Capital Flows to Emerging Market
Countries: a Long-Term Perspective |
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Chart |
Data |
1.2 |
How emerging Market Countries May Be
Affected By External Shocks |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
1.3 |
How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? |
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1.4 |
International and National Oil
Companies in a Changing Oil Sector Environment |
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Chapter 2 Boxes |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
2.1 |
Improved
Emerging Market Fiscal Performance: Cyclical or
Structural? |
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Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
Commodity Price Shocks, Growth, and
Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa |
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Chapter 3 Boxes |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
3.1 |
Japan's Potential Output and
Productivity Growth |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
3.2 |
The Evolution and Impact of Corporate
Governance Quality in Asia |
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Chapter 4 Boxes |
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4.1 |
Financial Leverage and Debt Deflation |
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Chapter 5 Boxes |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
5.1 |
Has Speculation Contributed to Higher
Commodity Prices? |
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5.2 |
Agricultural Trade Liberalization and
Commodity Prices |
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Appendix Boxes |
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A1. |
Economic Policy Assumptions
Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced
Economies |
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| Tables |
| 1.1 |
Overview of the World
Economic Outlook Projections |
| 1.2 |
Emerging Market and
Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows |
| 1.3 |
Major Advanced Economies:
General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt |
| 1.4 |
Global Oil Demand by
Region |
| 1.5 |
Selected Domestic Fuel
Price Changes, January 2005June 2006 |
| 1.6 |
Nonenergy Commodity
Prices |
| 2.1 |
Advanced Economies: Real
GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment |
| 2.2 |
Advanced Economies:
Current Account Positions |
| 2.3 |
Selected Asian Countries:
Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
| 2.4 |
Selected Western
Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance |
| 2.5 |
Emerging Europe: Real
GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
| 2.6 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance |
| 2.7 |
Selected
African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance |
| 2.8 |
Selected
Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance |
| 3.1 |
Sectoral Shares in Value
Added and Employment |
| 3.2 |
Determinants of
Productivity Growth |
| 4.1 |
Dependent Variable:
Private Consumption |
| 4.2 |
Dependent Variable:
_1,i,t |
| 4.3 |
Dependent Variable:
Bilateral Portfolio Investment |
| 5.1 |
Dependence on Exports of
Selected Non-Fuel Commodities |
| 5.2 |
Decomposition of IMF
Non-Fuel Commodities Price Index, 200206 |
| 5.3 |
Consumption of Industrial
Metals and Oil |
| 5.4 |
Consumption of Selected
Agricultural Commodities |
| 5.5 |
Cash Costs of Production
for Selected Base Metals |
| 5.6 |
Estimated Elasticities of
Demand for Selected Base Metals |
| 5.7 |
Estimates of Metal Demand |
| 5.8 |
Estimates of Price
Equations |
| 5.9 |
Equation for Industrial
Production |
| 5.10 |
Consumption of Metals |
| 5.11 |
Summary of the Results
from Rolling Regressions |
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Chapter 1 Charts
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Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
Global Indicators |
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Chart |
Data |
1.2 |
Current and Forward-Looking
Indicators |
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Chart |
Data |
1.3 |
Measures of the
Output Gap and Labor Market Pressures |
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Chart |
Data |
1.4 |
Global Inflation |
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Chart |
Data |
1.5 |
Developments in Mature Financial
Markets |
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Chart |
Data |
1.6 |
Mature Financial Market Indicators |
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Chart |
Data |
1.7 |
External Developments in Major
Advanced Economies |
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Chart |
Data |
1.8 |
External Developments in Emerging
Market Countries |
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Chart |
Data |
1.9 |
Emerging Market Financial Conditions |
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Chart |
Data |
1.10 |
Global Outlook |
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Chart |
Data |
1.11 |
Prospects for World GDP Growth |
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Chart |
Data |
1.12 |
Productivity Developments in Selected
Advanced Economies |
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Chart |
Data |
1.13 |
Impact of Commodity Price Movements
on Trade Balances in Emerging Markets and Developing
Countries |
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Chart |
Data |
1.14 |
Current Account Balances and Net
Foreign Assets |
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Chart |
Data |
1.15 |
Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices,
Price Volatility, and Consumption-Production Changes |
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Chart |
Data |
1.16 |
OPEC Production, OPEC Spare Capacity,
and OECD Inventories |
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Chart |
Data |
1.17 |
Stock Market Valuations and Real
Investment in Oil and Non-Oil Sectors |
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Chart |
Data |
1.18 |
Nonenergy Commodities |
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Chart |
Data |
1.19 |
Semiconductor Market |
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Chapter 2 Charts |
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Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
United States: Are Inflationary
Pressures Building |
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Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
Western Europe: Boosting Productivity
is the Key to Stronger Growth |
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Chart |
Data |
2.3 |
Japan: Balancing Inflation and
Deflation Risks |
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Chart |
Data |
2.4 |
Emerging Asia: The Regional Impact of
China's Rapid Growth |
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Chart |
Data |
2.5 |
Latin America: Progress Toward Fiscal
Sustainability |
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Chart |
Data |
2.6 |
Latin America: Mixed Performance in
the Hydrocarbons Sector |
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Chart |
Data |
2.7 |
Emerging Europe: Rapid Growth and Its
Risks |
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Chart |
Data |
2.8 |
Commonwealth of Independent States:
Strong Foreign Currency Inflows Create Macroeconomic
Challenges |
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Chart |
Data |
2.9 |
Sub-Saharan Africa: Oil-Importing
Countries Record Strong Growth Despite High Oil Prices |
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Chart |
Data |
2.10 |
Middle East: Spending Booming Oil
Revenue Wisely |
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Chapter 3 Charts |
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Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
Output per Capita |
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Chart |
Data |
3.2 |
Selected Indicators |
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Chart |
Data |
3.3 |
Growth Decompositions |
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Chart |
Data |
3.4 |
Information and Communications
Technologies (ICT) Investment and Labor Productivity
Growth, 19892005 |
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Chart |
Data |
3.5 |
Sectoral Shares of Value Added and
Employment for Asia |
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Chart |
Data |
3.6 |
Employment and Labor Productivity in
the Agricultural Sector Over Time |
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Chart |
Data |
3.7 |
Productivity Growth by Sector |
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Chart |
Data |
3.8 |
Sectoral Productivity Growth Since
Takeoff |
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Chart |
Data |
3.9 |
9Contributions to Average Labor
Productivity Growth Differential with the United States |
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Chart |
Data |
3.10 |
Skill Intensive Manufacturing Sectors:
Employment and Value Added Shares |
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Chart |
Data |
3.11 |
Contributions to Average
Manufacturing Productivity Growth Differential with the
United States |
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Chart |
Data |
3.12 |
Determinants of Productivity Growth,
19702004 |
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Chart |
Data |
3.13 |
Determinants of Labor Shifts from
Agriculture |
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Chart |
Data |
3.14 |
Partial Correlations Between Labor
Shift From Agriculture and Its Determinants |
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Chapter 4 Charts |
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Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
Stock and Bond Market Capitalization
and Nonfinancial Sector Liabilities,19952004 |
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Chart |
Data |
4.2 |
Traditional Banking: Index for
Selected Advanced Economies |
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Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
New Financial Intermediation: Index
for Selected Advanced Countries |
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Chart |
Data |
4.4 |
Financial Markets: Index for Selected
Advanced Economies |
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Chart |
Data |
4.5 |
Financial Index Scores for Advanced
Economies |
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Chart |
Data |
4.6 |
Features of Mortgage Markets |
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Chart |
Data |
4.7 |
Total Household Liabilities |
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Chart |
Data |
4.8 |
Consumption-Income Correlations and
the Financial Index, 19852005 |
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Chart |
Data |
4.9 |
Private Consumption: Response to
Equity Busts, 19852005 |
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Chart |
Data |
4.10 |
Private Consumption and Residential
Investment: A Response to Housing Busts, 19702005 |
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Chart |
Data |
4.11 |
Depth of Equity and Housing Busts and
the Financial Index, 19852005 |
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Chart |
Data |
4.12 |
Investment and Financing by the
Corporate Sector |
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Chart |
Data |
4.13 |
The Financial
Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment |
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4.14 |
The Financial
Index |
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Chart |
Data |
4.15 |
The Financial
Index: Subindices for Selected Advanced Economies |
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4.16 |
Clustering Results |
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Chapter 5 Charts |
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Chart |
Data |
5.1 |
Dependence on Exports of Non-Fuel
Commodities and Geographical Concentration of Production |
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Chart |
Data |
5.2 |
Long-Term Price Trends |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.3 |
Volatility in Nonfuel Commodities
Prices |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.4 |
Commodity Prices over the Business
Cycle |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.5 |
Recent Developments in Commodity
Prices |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.6 |
Perspective on the Recent Price
Developments, 19572006 |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.7 |
Consumption of Base Metals and Steel,
19602005 |
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Chart |
Data |
5.8 |
The Importance of Industry at Various
Stages of Economic Development, 19652004 |
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Chart |
Data |
5.9 |
Base Metal Prices on Futures Markets |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.10 |
Model-Based Forecasts of Aluminum and
Copper Prices |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.11 |
Consumption of Base Metals and
Industrial Production, 19602005 |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.12 |
Crude Oil: Rolling Estimates of the
Model's Long-Run Parameters |
|
Chart |
Data |
5.13 |
Crude Oil: Rolling Estimates of the
Model's Short-Run Parameters |
