THOMAS RICHARDSON: PRESIDENT'S INITIATIVES WILL BE EFFECTIVE ONLY IF
COMPLEMENTED BY OTHER BROADER REFORMS
BASA-press Agency interview with Thomas Richardson, Head of the IMF
Mission to Moldova
BASA-press: Before the IMF Mission's arrival in Chisinau it was said that
"very interesting" discussions would be held with Moldovan authorities.
Was that really so?
Thomas Richardson: Indeed, discussions were interesting. Actually, each time
we come to Chisinau we have interesting discussions. Especially when we conduct
a review mission, as was the last one, when discussions are held to come to an
can tell that there is some impact on the economic policies of the upcoming
elections. Of course, it is a good thing that the influence of politics and
democracy has an impact on economic policies, but then again all of us have
witnessed cases when politicians are tempted to undertake more populist actions
to attract more votes in elections. The IMF tries to help any state to try to
ensure some continuity of economic policies across the electoral cycle.
work with the Government of the day in every country, whatever Governmentís in
power. We try maintain the same advice, the same policy regardless of who is in
power. And we hope that these efforts result in ensuring some stability of the
country's economic policies.
BASA-press: What do you mean when you say that the forthcoming elections have a
certain impact on economic policies?
Thomas Richardson: I do not see here any direct implications of the
president's initiatives, because, for the most part, the ordinary population
will not be affected directly by it. Some such pressure may be seen in the
decision to apply the amendments to the law on wages, namely to increase wages
in the public sector.
could see that there is a certain degree of nervousness about raising public
utilities tariffs. First of all, it refers to the tariffs for electricity and
centralized heating. It seemed to us that the authorities are somewhat reticent
to increase these tariffs to the costs recovery level.
tariff for centralized heating is about 540 lei per giga-calorie, but the people
pay 233 lei, the rest being covered by the Municipality Budget. Clearly, this is
a rather populist measure.
BASA-press: It's true if we compare the tariff with the production costs.
However if we compare the tariff and the wages, the latter does not resist, as
it's lower. So what do we do then?
Thomas Richardson: For some people itís true and for others it is not. The
Government has the challenge to develop and then to introduce targeted nominal
assistance system, so that in the end the assistance goes to the people who
really need them. I think that is the only way to proceed.
know that many international financial institutions and donors that provide
support to Moldova provide the Government with assistance to develop and
introduce such a targeted assistance system. Because it does not exist yet very
well, it goes to the people who are not poor. We think that this is a problem.
Thatís one reason why we do not insist that the tariffs paid by individual
households fully cover the costs. Nevertheless, it is very important that the
costs be paid, no matter who does it. "Termocom" itself was covering the costs
until present, now the Chisinau municipality budget will cover a part of them
for the city residents. And that is a very good thing. In some countries of the
region these systems have collapsed. It happened so because the tariffs failed
to cover the costs.
BASA-press: Be it unintentionally or not, but the law on amending the
legislation in force with a view to carry out president's initiatives was
promulgated on the very day when the IMF mission finished its visit to Chisinau,
which makes some think there were great concerns and lively discussions about
Thomas Richardson: I wouldnít say that we reached an agreement on the
Presidentís economic measures. I wouldn't put it that way. I didnít try to hide
anything and I think that we were sincere enough during the press conference we
held at the end of the mission. I would not want to give an impression that we
were happy with some of the president's measures, including the tax amnesty.
Frankly, we don't like tax amnesties anywhere. What we did reach some agreement
on though was the measures that are to be taken to compensate some of the risks
that arise from the economic initiatives launched by the president.
BASA-press: A business forum has been recently held, and earlier there was a
forum of foreign investors, during which the participants focused on completely
different issues than tax reduction, tax amnesty and capital legalization. How
can this be explained?
Thomas Richardson: During our visit we have found a lot of agreement with
the president's initiatives among the business community, among Government
officials, and the academics.
again, we have also noticed there is a fair amount of scepticism on whether the
expected outcomes would really be very effective, though we have not been said
it very openly. And I do not know whether people are reluctant to openly
criticizing the measures or they are just not sure. Probably, these measures
will be effected only if they are complemented by other broader reforms in the
country, as, for instance, the judiciary reform is.
BASA-press: I did not mean that businessmen opposed the initiative, but rather
that they were concerned more about other reforms.
Thomas Richardson: Clearly, they have been discussing deeper reforms for the
environment, effective in the long run, such as the improvements of the
regulatory framework, the judiciary reform that will have a greater impact than
the reforms launched by the president.
have heard from lots of business people, both foreign and domestic, as well as
from Government officials that the judicial system was not effective in
protecting property rights. And as long as thatís the case, none of the
Presidentís economic reforms will really have any significant impact.
BASA-press: I always hear an economist saying that he planned the business at
the beginning of the year starting from a certain exchange rate, and the fact
that the Moldovan leu got lately stronger screwed up all his plans. Probably,
exporters, who suffer losses, must have the same opinion. Do you think the
current currency exchange rate is realistic? What should the National Bank of
Moldova be doing to this end?
Thomas Richardson: The National Bank should Ėas they are Ė concentrate on
preserving a low inflation rate. Of course, they pay attention to other economic
variables, too, like real economic growth, unemployment rate, interest rates,
and also the exchange rate. But their goal is and it should be to achieve
single-digit inflation. It does create some complications for them in terms of
managing inflows of foreign exchange. The Central Bank's goal is to smooth out
fluctuations in the exchange rate.
National Bank have shown that they are prepared to let the exchange rate move to
the levels that the market sets. Last year, when were here, we discussed with
journalists, the business community, Government officials and were telling that
the Moldovan Leu might go as low as 14 lei per dollar. Now, it has moved in the
other direction. It means that, actually, no one could predict with certainty
where the exchange rate could go. However, in a more modern financial system
there are opportunities to hedge the risks.
alternative is just to go completely at the other direction and set a fixed
exchange rate regime, like they did in Bulgaria or Macedonia. But that poses
very strong requirements on the budget to be able to adjust as the economic
conditions change, so that a fixed currency exchange rate is kept. If the state
is willing to give up monetary policy tools for the sake of fixing the exchange
rate, then all the pressure falls on the budget. If we look at Bulgaria for the
last few years, they had budget surplus of 2- 3% each year.
currency exchange rate moves around just as the gasoline does price. In the case
of the latter, if you are worried about the gasoline price fluctuation, you
chose to buy a smaller car that consumes less gasoline in order to minimize the
of the main reasons for a flexible exchange rate is that it serves as a buffer
against external economic shocks.
BASA-press: Based on the discussions with the authorities, did you have the
certainty that capital legalization and tax amnesty will be one-time events?
Thomas Richardson: I am sure that the authorities understand the importance
of making this a one-time event. Everybody we met, from the President to the Tax
Inspectorate, understand very well that it can happen only once. Stronger tax
administration is needed to prevent the accumulation of arrears in the future.
BASA-press: What are the objectives of the new Memorandum on Economic and
Financial Policies that was agreed upon during the last IMF Mission's visit?
Thomas Richardson: The new Memorandum has still to go to the IMF Board of
Directors; therefore I would prefer not to get into details regarding its
content. It is based mainly on the text of the old Memorandum. The key
objectives announced by the Government have been preserved.
Actually, there are three, maximum four key objectives that lay the foundation
of the agreement between the IMF and the authorities.
first is to preserve the economic stability. We mean, first of all, keeping
inflation lower than 10%. Another key objective of the authorities is to reduce
the degree of Government's interference in business, as well as to improve the
business climate. Here I am speaking of the regulatory reform, the guillotine
process. And yet another objective is to preserve the stability of the financial
sector and develop the financial system.